Tight AFC Division Battles, Change My Mind

Let’s look at the AFC standings, where the top two teams aren’t separated by more than one game in any division. But you wouldn’t know it, looking at the futures odds at the sportsbooks (BetMGM Division odds below). AFC East

• Buffalo Bills: 5-1 (-900)
• New York Jets: 4-2 (+2000)

Let’s get this one out of the way quickly. I’m a Jets fan. They’re not winning the division. The culture change that Robert Saleh has brought and the talented draft class are real, which could mean they get out of the basement, but they’re not challenging the Bills with a healthy Josh Allen.

Change My Mind: The Jets would need to win the next three games, including a head-to-head over the Bills, and do so because of Zach Wilson.

• Baltimore Ravens: 3-3 (-140)
• Cincinnati Bengals: 3-3 (+200)

This one surprises me. The Bengals lost to Baltimore, but all three of their defeats have come in walk-off fashion by a total of eight points. What have the Ravens done to earn faith? We’ve seen them blow three games because of shoddy defense and sloppy offense, and they still have to play at Cincy.

Change My Mind: Some consistency from the Ravens, the only one of the eight first- and second-place AFC teams not to win two in a row in 2022.

• Tennessee Titans: 3-2 (+160)
• Indianapolis Colts: 3-2-1 (+110)

So that I have this right, with a head-to-head win in Week 4, the Titans have a game in hand, on top of their lead in the division, and they play this Sunday in Tennessee, where the Titans are favored, albeit by a small number (-2.5 @ FanDuel -120). A victory gives Tennessee a virtual 2.5-game division lead.

Change My Mind: How about the Colts win a game that doesn’t feel like they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat? Starting this Sunday.

• Kansas City Chiefs: 4-2 (-200)
• Los Angeles Chargers: 4-2 (+200)

Even though these teams are tied, and the Chargers arguably outplayed the Chiefs in their loss in Kansas City (with an upcoming November game in LA), these odds make sense to me. I’m always going to believe Patrick Mahomes and company will find a way to win until I see them lose.

Change My Mind: Let’s start with competent coaching. Brandon Staley seems to add to his team’s degree of difficulty all too often.