Who Makes the Playoffs Out of the Jumbled AFC South Division

Coming off the Week 5 results in the NFL, there was some intriguing line movement at the BetMGM Sportsbook for teams to make the playoffs in 2022. Notable Make Playoffs Line Movement (Week 5 to current)

• Bengals -115 to +100
• Broncos -115 to +275
• Colts +115 to -125
• Dolphins -450 to -175
• Titans +130 to -105

The two teams that have seen the odds move positively reside in the AFC South.

The Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1), who went from +115 to -125 to make the playoffs, are coming off an upset win in the Mile High City (12-9) on Thursday Night Football, a game we all want to forget. 

They benefited from Denver’s inability to score in the red zone. The Colts didn’t perform like a playoff team but picked up a win in a game that was expected to be a loss (per the betting line).

Both of Indy’s wins have come improbably, including an upset over the Kansas City Chiefs with the aid of an untimely/questionable unsportsmanlike penalty to keep their game-winning drive alive. They easily could be winless.

Regardless of whether they look like a playoff team, this isn’t a beauty contest, and they are just half a game behind first place in their division. In terms of directly impacting their postseason chances, an upset over the Broncos was a nudge in the right direction for the Colts.  

The next two games could decide Indy’s fate. They host the Jacksonville Jaguars and would fall into third place with a loss, followed by a trip to Tennessee, with a home loss to the Titans already on their ledger. Both contests are two game swings in the standings.

If they can come out on top in both games, the Colts will then have a chance to gain some separation with the Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, and Las Vegas Raiders (4-11 combined record) on deck. 

Who’s in first place in the AFC South?

The defending champion Tennessee Titans (3-2), who saw their odds shift from +130 to -105 this week.

Reports of Tennessee’s death were greatly exaggerated. After starting the season 0-2 with losses to the lowly New York Giants (maybe they’re good?) and an embarrassing blowout to the Buffalo Bills (three wins by at least 21 points), the Titans were written off.

Since then, they’ve reeled off three-straight wins to find themselves in a familiar place, atop the AFC South. All three of their wins came as either underdog or in a tossup game. 

After two crucial (must win?) division games (vs. Colts, at Texans), the Titans have to play the Kansas Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Philadelphia Eagles. Most likely, they will be favored in just one of those games, making the next two even more critical. 

The biggest reason (besides their Week 5 wins) both teams got a bump this week?

Someone has to win the AFC South, and that someone looks less likely to be the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) after the division’s trendy team lost to the previously winless Houston Texans. 

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