This Odd Bill Belichick Post-Bye Trend Could Factor Into Patriots-Jets

The narrative surrounding Bill Belichick (or any good NFL coach, for that matter) coming off a bye is well known: Belichick and coaches of his ilk are dominant when they have a week to prepare for an opponent.

It’s certainly true, at least in some ways regarding Belichick. New England has a 15-7 regular-season record coming out of the bye under the legendary head coach. Two out of three times, his team is walking off the field with a victory. That’s quite good.

The Patriots will try to improve upon that record Sunday when it returns to Gillette Stadium to host the New York Jets in what figures to be the most important chapter of this rivalry in years.

The post-bye Patriots tend to win these games, which is all that matters to Belichick and his team. However, when you consider the point spread, New England is far from a sure thing. The Patriots under Belichick are just 12-10 against the spread with that extra week in the regular season. That’s obviously far closer to a coin toss.

The Patriots opened as 4-point favorites for Sunday’s tilt in Foxboro, but bettors quickly bet them down to -3, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see New England go off as 3.5-point chalk. It’s a tough one to handicap. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has given no real indication he’s able to go on the road and beat a Belichick-led team. The Patriots, on the other hand, have one of the NFL’s worst offenses and are about to square off with a stout defensive unit that’s especially stingy in the secondary.

But if you dig deeper into Belichick’s history, an interesting betting angle presents itself. A tip of the cap for this idea goes to the Boston Sports Journal’s Greg Bedard, who mentioned Tuesday on 98.5 The Sports Hub’s “Felger and Massarotti” that New England tends to start slow off the bye. Bedard referenced a 2012 story he wrote for The Boston Globe looking at the Patriots’ early-game struggles in their first appearance after the bye.

Using that narrative as a jumping-off point, we did a deeper dive into New England’s recent regular-season history coming out of the bye, and there are some interesting results. Here are the halftime scores of the Patriots’ last four regular-season games coming off the bye.

2021: Trailed Colts 17-0
2020: Trailed Broncos 12-3
2019: Trailed Eagles 10-9
2018: Tied Jets 10-10

In fact, the Patriots have trailed or been tied at halftime in eight of their last 12 games coming out of their bye. In two of the games they led, their opponents started Brock Osweiler and Brandon Weeden at quarterback. Neither of those gentlemen are particularly good at playing quarterback in the NFL. Those two teams, the 2017 Broncos and 2015 Cowboys, respectively, went a combined 9-23.

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Patriots as 3-point first-half favorites for Sunday’s game.

That +140 Jets moneyline sure stands out, too.

This is admittedly a small sample size, but it is an interesting little wrinkle — opinions and wagers have been formed based on less. It’s by no means a sure thing, though, in large part because Wilson might ultimately be closer to Osweiler and Weeden when it’s all said and done. But this Jets team might actually be good, too — in spite of Wilson.

Rolling with this trend might also present some in-game value. If the Patriots trail at halftime, they’ll be a tempting second-half wager, especially considering how they outscored the Jets 16-7 in the second half of their Week 8 meeting. The Patriots have actually outscored the Jets 51-13 in the second halves of the three games during the Wilson-Robert Saleh era.

Do what you want with this info, but don’t be surprised if the Patriots are (once again) sweating it out early before storming back to win Sunday in Foxboro.