Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Preview and Insights

College Football Bowl season is fully underway, with the Armed Forces Bowl set to go down on December 22, as Baylor takes on Air Force.

The Armed Forces Bowl has been taking place since 2003, which last saw Army defeat Missouri 24-22 in 2021. 

New Orleans Bowl Game Information

Date: Thursday, December 22, 2022
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
How To Watch: ESPN
Record: Baylor (6-6), Air Force (9-3)                                                                                       

Spread: Baylor (-3.5) | Moneyline: Baylor (-166), Air Force (+138) | Total: 43.5                                                                           

It hasn’t been pretty for the Baylor Bears, entering this bowl game with a .500 record. On the other hand, Air Force performed admirably in the Mountain West Conference, leading to a 9-3 record. Still, the Bears are three-point favorites with the hook, meaning oddsmakers value their Big-12 schedule and competition a little more. Across their schedules, the Bears were 7-5 ATS, while the Falcons were 6-6. Interestingly, the Bears opened this matchup at 8.5-point favorites, but the line has dropped to 3.5, where it currently stands. Just two points have decided the last two Armed Forces Bowls, so the spread dropping likely has some merit.

The total is set at 43.5. The Bears have hit the over in seven of their last nine games, which could be a trend to back in the Armed Forces Bowl. In contrast, the under has been more prominent with the Falcons, which has hit in seven of 12 matchups. 

Air Force has played in this bowl game five times, going 1-4, which could sway bettors from leaning in their direction. With the line sitting where it currently is, there’s likely some value in siding with the movement and taking the points and the Falcons.

Baylor Bears Insights:

• Baylor skill players have averaged 16.2 yards per reception (1,005 yards/62 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season – tied for third best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3
• Ben Sims (BAY) has seven first-down receptions in the red zone since last season – tied for third-most among Power Five Tight Ends
• Qualan Jones (BAY) has picked up first downs on 39% of his rush attempts in the red zone – best among Power Five Running Backs; Average: 19%
• Noah Rauschenberg (BAY) has 4.6 touchbacks – tied for second best among FBS Kickers; Average: 1.6
• Baylor skill players have averaged 16.2 yards per reception (1,005 yards/62 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season – second best among Power Five Teams; Average: 11.4

Air Force Falcons Insights:

• Air Force has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (368 yards / 137 touches) in the red zone since – best among Non-Power Five Teams; Average: 3.7
• Air Force has allowed eight TDs in the red zone – best among Non-Power Five Teams; Average: 2.1
• Air Force has allowed 17 TDs – best among Non-Power Five Teams; Average: 3.2
• Air Force WRs have averaged 25.5 yards per reception (715 yards/28 catches) – best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1
• Air Force has allowed 257.3 yards from scrimmage per game – second best in FBS; Average: 377.0