College Football Playoffs Final Four vs. Natty Odds

The College Football Playoff is less than two weeks away. We have a returning participant in the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines. The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs look to become the first repeat champions of the CFP era and the first since the Alabama Crimson Tide did it a decade ago (2011-12).

The top-seeded Bulldogs will take on the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. OSU hopes to win their second CFP in their fifth appearance. Their selection as a non-conference champion gave the Big Ten two teams in the final four for the first time in the conference’s history.

The Wolverines are slated to play the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, who is a first-time participant in the CFP, just the second team from the Big 12 to get a bid from the College Football Playoff committee (the Oklahoma Sooners are a four-time qualifier).

Let’s look at how the seeds compare to the betting market. 

The defending champs are the team to beat, and the market has been bullish on the Dawgs, who you have to lay odds on UGA to win the CFP. Georgia opened at +200 at the BetMGM Sportsbook, tied with Alabama as the preseason favorite on the opening odds.

UGA was -165 before their blowout over LSU in the SEC Championship Game. Why the move to -130? That has more to do with the opponent than anything coming out of Athens.

They are a 6.5-point favorite over Ohio State, but had they been slotted to play USC in the semifinals, which was at least a 50-50 chance heading into championship week, the Bulldogs would have been a double-digit favorite on New Year’s Eve. The path to a repeat got tougher. 

The second-seed Wolverines, despite winning the Big Ten in 2021 to earn their first CFP appearance, opened the season at +3500 to win the National Championship, well behind Georgia and Ohio State. 

In line with their CFP Ranking, Michigan has the second-shortest odds at +300, a slight move from +275 heading into the B1G Championship Game. That’s also the result of OSU making the field, ensuring Michigan is likely to be the underdog in the National Championship Game.

Michigan’s path to being favored in the title game was a fourth-seeded TCU or USC upsetting Georgia in the semis. That went from unlikely to impossible, as most advanced lines had the Buckeyes as a slight favorite over the Wolverines if the two teams were to meet in the CFP.

The next team in the futures market is fourth-ranked Ohio State (+360). They opened as the third-favorite (+600), behind UGA and Bama. The Buckeyes made the biggest move in the market from championship week when OSU’s odds sat at +1100. 

The major line move in one week was expected. Unlike the other three participants in the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes didn’t qualify for their conference title game and needed help to make the CFP. They got it when Utah beat USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Always viewed as a legitimate national title contender, if not the favorite, the Buckeyes simply needed a chance in the eyes of bettors. You gotta be in it to win it. The market gives them the best odds to beat Georgia.

The only reason they’re behind the rival Wolverines in the Natty odds is their path to the title game is significantly more challenging. While OSU is a 6.5-point underdog to UGA, Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite in their semifinal game.

As a 7.5-point underdog to Michigan, TCU is the least likely team to advance to the national championship game. If they were to pull off the upset, the Horned Frogs would be an even bigger underdog against either Georgia or Ohio State, probably at least two touchdowns if it’s UGA.

Why did the committee rank TCU third compared to the sportsbooks, who have them as the clearcut fourth-best team in the playoffs? Regardless of the “best team” label, the committee is mostly resume-based and backward-looking on the season, choosing the most deserving team. Sorry, Bama.

That’s not the job of the sportsbooks, which may come as a surprise to Nick Saban. The books have a completely different task at hand. The betting market is forward-looking and predictive. The Horned Frogs opened at +15000, an afterthought as a national title contender.

I have no qualms with their current price (+1800), but the shift from +1000 before championship week does leave me scratching my head a bit. What changed? We already knew that TCU would be an underdog. The biggest difference is we weren’t 100 percent sure they would make it. 

What if TCU was blown out in the Big 12 Championship Game? Or quarterback Max Duggan was injured in the game? Or USC finished the season 13-0? Would the Horned Frogs be in? Maybe. But maybe not. Either their odds of +1000 were wrong, or there’s value on TCU at +1800.