Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State Preview and Insights

Get your best ball shined up, those slippy shoes on, and your wrist brace dusted off because we’re going bowling! Bowl season is here, and we are getting you ready by previewing every single game. Here we head to the Big Easy for the 89th annual Sugar Bowl as the Kansas State Wildcats meet the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Sugar Bowl Game Information

Date: Saturday, December 31, 2022, | Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA | How To Watch: ESPN
Record: #9 Kansas State (10-3) | #5 Alabama (10-2)                                                                                            

Spread: ALA -6.5 | Moneyline: KSU +210 – ALA -260 | Total: 55.5 

While any bowl game is reason to celebrate for most programs, the Alabama Crimson Tide is not most programs. Nick Saban’s bunch is begrudgingly heading to New Orleans after being snubbed from the College Football Playoffs. Even though Bama’s headman is taking the high road saying, “This is not something that is not important to us,” the reality is the Tide expected to be playing in the semifinals this weekend. The preseason top-ranked team had losses to LSU and Tennessee, both highly ranked at the time, and both games ending on the game’s final play. What’s done is done, and instead, Alabama will face a team that was unranked when the year began.

Kansas State did not jump into the rankings until a 3-1 start after an impressive win at Oklahoma. They never fell off the Nation’s leaderboard the rest of the way before earning a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. The Wildcats disposed of CFP semifinalist, the unbeaten TCU Horned Frogs, with a 31-28 overtime victory to claim the Big 12 in early December.

The difference in this game could come down to personnel. Alabama has 15 players that have entered the transfer portal that will miss the Sugar Bowl. Most of these players are offensive linemen or wide receivers, so the Wildcats may have an attack point to exploit. Kansas State will have its entire squad after no players have opted out of the big game.

The ‘Cats come in as near-touchdown underdogs but have exceeded expectations all year. K-State covered their final four games and went 9-3-1 ATS this season. Alabama covered just twice in their last seven and in only six games this year.

• #9 Kansas State is 8-2 (.667) when rushing more than 30 times — tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .466
• #9 Kansas State is 13-3 (.684) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season— tied for 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .527
• #9 Kansas State is 15-4 (.789) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season— tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .562
• #9 Kansas State is 6-2 (.750) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season— tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .572
• #9 Kansas State is 11-2 (.688) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season— 11th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .506

• #5 Alabama is 8-1 (.800) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season— 6th-best in FBS; Average: .445
• #5 Alabama is 13-3 (.765) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season— 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .561
• #5 Alabama is 11-1 (.846) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season— tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .584
• #5 Alabama is 10-3 (.714) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season— 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .420
• #5 Alabama is 13-3 (.765) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season— 6th-best in FBS; Average: .421

• Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
• Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
• Alabama is 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Alabama’s last 5 bowl games.
• Over is 4-1 in Kansas State’s last 5 games following a straight up win.