NFL Championship Sunday Player Props to Pop For Each Team

The legendary Vince Lombardi once said, “Winning is not everything, but making the effort to win is.” 

I’m going to tweak the Hall of Famer’s words a bit… Winning is not everything, but hitting your player props is. More than ever, bettors are turning away from picking a side against the spread and towards player props. And who am I but a humble servant of the people?

Here’s a four-pack of player props for Championship Sunday when the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs for the right to go to the Super Bowl. One for each team fighting to win the trophy, named after coach Lombardi.

Eagles: DeVonta Smith OVER 5.5 Receptions: I was on Smith last week, and even though Philly took the air out of the offense and focused on the run game (44 rushes to 24 passes) earlier than any expected, he found his way OVER the number. I’m flying with this Eagle again. 

Smith has beaten the OVER for receptions in 11 of 18 games (61%) this season, including the playoffs. Targeted seven or more times in four of his last five games, including each of the past three, Smith is averaging 7.0 receptions in the past five and 7.3 in the past three.

I’m not throwing shade on the 49ers’ defense, but they are much tougher to run on and have allowed over 5.5 receptions to an opposing wide receiver in four of their last five games.

49ers: Brock Purdy UNDER 19.5 Completions: I hate to be a hater, but here comes some shade. Is Purdy really going into the Linc in that atmosphere and lighting up that defense, ranked No. 1 against the pass?

As impressive as Purdy’s numbers have been, he’s only attempted more than 30 passes once in seven starts, so we shouldn’t be surprised to learn Purdy hasn’t beaten the OVER for pass completions in any of his last three games and has gone over 19.5 once in his past seven games.

Now he’s going up against the top pass defense in the NFL, led by their record-setting pass rush (league-leading 70 sacks). The Niners would be wise to lean on the run game in Philadelphia, and we know Kyle Shanahan is a wise man.

Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 6.5 Receptions: If I could pick any receiver in the NFL to start a team, my mind immediately goes to Chase. He has all the tools and, just two years into his career, is big-game proven. 

Chase has beaten the OVER for receptions in eight of 13 games (62%) this season. Joe Burrow’s No. 1 option has been targeted eight times or more in 69% (9/13) of his games this season, including two of the past three. Those targets, more often than not, turn into receptions.

The LSU product is averaging 6.7 receptions per game this season, and that number bumps up to 7.3 receptions per game over his last three games. KC has allowed over 6.5 receptions to an opposing WR in 13 of 17 games (76%) this season, including four of five and the past three straight.

Although Chase didn’t suit up against the Chiefs when they played earlier this season, he faced them twice in his rookie campaign, with 17 receptions (4 TDs) on 21 targets.

Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards: The rookie runner might be the most underrated player on Kansas City’s offense. Pacheco rushed for 830 yards on 4.9 yards per carry, as the seventh-round pick is giving the Chiefs what first-round choice Clyde Edwards-Helaire was expected to.

A strong rusher with some burst, Pacheco averaged 48.8 rushing yards per game this season, going over 48.5 yards in 59% (10/17) of games. He’s been even better down the stretch, as he’s picked up 66.8 rushing yards per game over his last five, rushing for 58-plus yards in nine of the past ten.

With Patrick Mahomes at less than 100 percent, expect Pacheco’s usage to at least mirror, if not exceed, last week’s 12-carry, 95-yard effort.