NFL Odds: Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 18
We're steering clear of Super Bowl favorites
Making picks and navigating Week 18 of the NFL has never been more difficult.
Granted, this is just the second season in which the NFL has had a Week 18, but there’s no doubt this year presents more challenges than the 2021 campaign did.
That’s in large for two reasons: The first, most pressing one, is the complicated situation surrounding the Week 17 game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. That game has been canceled after a postponement Monday night following the terrifying collapse of Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin. Thankfully, it seems like his health has improved tremendously, which is all that really matters, but the cancellation did complicate the playoff situation.
Because of the NFL’s Thursday night announcement, the Week 18 slate plays a little differently now (which we’ll discuss in a bit). And that’s all on top of the fact the league’s final week presents a whole host of relatively meaningless games with only a few playoff spots up for grabs.
With all that in mind, here are three favorites we’d tend to avoid betting or picking in Week 18.
(-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
The No. 1 seed is a very real possibility for the Chiefs now after the Bills-Bengals cancellation. Granted, the possibility of a neutral-site AFC Championship Game lessens the importance of that top seed, but getting the only bye week is still worth something. But it’s not like the Chiefs have been especially dominant all season, regardless of the spot, and 9.5 points is a lot. And maybe this is a misread of the situation, but the Raiders do feel like the sort of team that could play a relatively inspired Week 18 despite having no playoff hopes. We saw last week how good Josh McDaniels’ offense can look with these skill players; all it took was handing the keys over to Jarrett Stidham, who dazzled in his first NFL start at quarterback. Stidham’s future is unclear, but he could certainly help his career by putting a second consecutive solid performance on film going into the offseason. Even if the Chiefs build an early lead here, it stands to reason Vegas won’t completely roll over, and that could leave the backdoor ajar.
What do you think?
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(-7) Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
There’s definitely a scenario where the Bills gather for their Saturday night meeting, and Damar Hamlin meets with the team on a video call from his hospital bed in Cincinnati, and it inspires Buffalo to run the Patriots out of the building Sunday. But it’s more likely than not the Bills can’t improve their playoff seeding Sunday. Because of the Week 17 cancellation, the Bills need not only a win to get the No. 1 seed but also a Kansas City loss on Saturday. The Chiefs are 9-point favorites over the Raiders, so Andy Reid’s team does have the inside track to that top spot. You have to wonder, too, how a Chiefs win Saturday would move this line toward the Patriots. Maybe that’s already baked in. Regardless, the most likely scenario is a Bills team that has gone through hell over the last week can’t improve its standing Sunday, and we don’t quite see their best showing, allowing a Patriots team that needs a win to get in to play them very tough.
(-14) Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
This line has stayed so consistent at 13.5 or 14 this week that you do have to wonder whether someone knows something about the Giants’ plans. But even if New York is going to rest everyone, doesn’t two touchdowns feel a bit excessive? Philly technically has something to play for — it can lock up the No. 1 seed this week — but they certainly don’t need to run up the score in order to do so. And if the Giants aren’t resting everyone, we’ve got four-plus months of evidence that says they can be competitive against just about anyone. The Eagles also have some notable injuries on top of Jalen Hurts, who could be back this week. They just haven’t been the same offense since tackle Lane Johnson went down, and the Giants definitely have the pass-rush talent to make that stand out again this week. It also looks like the Eagles could be without some defensive starters like Avonte Maddox and Josh Sweat, too. And again, this is all with the backdrop of a 14-point spread.
