Super Bowl LVII: Fly Eagles (Offense), Fly

Super Bowl week is here, and it’s time to dive into the matchups when the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles take the field this coming Sunday. The Eagles are a 1.5-point favorite for Super Bowl LVII, and the most significant edge they have over the Chiefs is when they have the ball.

This isn’t to say Philly has a better offense than Kansas City. If we were lining up offense vs. offense and defense vs. defense, most would agree the Chiefs have the more explosive offense while the more balanced Eagles have the edge defensively. 

We’re talking about which matchup on the field favors the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterbacks had a 99.1 passer rating this season, which ranked sixth in the NFL. Most of that was produced by Jalen Hurts, whose 101.6 passer rating was fourth in the league.

Kansas City’s defense, which at times features two rookie cornerbacks, allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 95.2 rating in 2022. That was the sixth worst in the NFL. 

Led by the duo of A.J. Brown (11 TDs) and DeVonta Smith (7 TDs), Philly’s receivers caught 22 touchdown passes this season, the third most in the NFL, while Kansas City’s secondary allowed 20 receiving touchdowns by opposing wideouts, the second-worst in the league.

The postseason has told a different story, as Philly wideouts have just one TD catch through two games, while the Chiefs held Cincy’s corps (25 regular-season TDs) to one score in the AFC Championship Game.

Part of Philly’s success through the air is their ability to stay ahead of the chains on the ground. Their 4.9 yards per carry on first down this season was fifth in the NFL and the same amount KC allows, 26th in the league.

The Jacksonville Jaguars averaged 7.6 yards per carry in the Divisional Round against the Chiefs, yet ran the ball just 19 times. The Eagles won’t make the same mistake.

This very well could be where Super Bowl LVII will be decided.

Philadelphia’s 40 Red Zone touchdowns were good for third in the NFL, while the Chiefs have allowed nearly as many scores inside their 20 (37), which ranked 30th.

Their Red Zone efficiency is a primary reason the Eagles led the NFC in scoring (28.1 PPG), third in the NFL. Philly was second in the league in points per Red Zone drive (4.8) and third in Red Zone points per game (19.6). Not just quality; it’s quantity, as they’ve run 16% percent of their offensive plays inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (sixth).

All of these metrics work heavily against the Chiefs, who ranked 30th in points per Red Zone drive allowed (4.6) and 26th in Red Zone PPG allowed.

Getting (or allowing) seven points vs. three points is often the difference in the game, especially one that is expected to be as closely contested as Super Bowl LVII.