3 MLB Teams to Fade this Season: Breaking Down the Mets, Rays, and Dodgers

With a fantastic Opening Day in the books, here are some playoff contenders we’ll look to fade for the 2023 season.New York Mets

The Mets have been the story of the offseason, but I’m not buying it, no pun intended. Steve Cohen opened the checkbook, signing Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jose Quintana to shore up the rotation, then dished out lucrative extensions to Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo. Not to mention nearly dropping another $300 million on Carlos Correa that didn’t pan out.

All in all, looking at this Mets team, they have too much riding on a pair of 40-year-olds. Despite how legendary Verlander and Scherzer are, they still are 40. Verlander has already admitted to struggling with his control, and an unexpected IL stint is already scary, no matter how much New York downplays the muscle strain.

Get Verlander’s injury information here.

Plus, in the loaded NL East, the Mets arguably have the worst lineups of the top three contenders. The Braves and Phillies are much more potent at the plate. This is not to say the Mets will be bad by any means, they’ll likely make the postseason, but I’m not backing any of their divisional or championship futures.

Mets Season Odds

• Regular Season Wins Total: N/A Over (-110) Under (-110)
• To Make Playoffs: Yes N/A | No N/A
• NL East Winners: +165 (2nd favorite)
• National League Champions: +500 (T-3 favorite)
• World Series Winner: +900 (5th favorite)

Full NL East Season Preview

The Dodgers will be great once more, but I’m not feeling them as the favorite in the NL and looking to fade them there. LA won 111 games last year, but out of the six 2022 NL playoff teams, it feels like the Dodgers are the only one that got worse. The Mets, Phillies, and Padres all got better, while the Braves and Cardinals remained neutral. LA lost Trea Turner, whose departure is massive, especially to another NL power in the Phillies. They also lost Justin Turner, a mainstay for years with the Dodgers, and will be without Walker Buehler this season as a blow to the rotation. Like the Mets, the Dodgers will still be good, but great? I’m not counting on it.

Dodgers Season Odds

• Regular Season Wins Total: N/A Over (-110) Under (-110)
• To Make Playoffs: Yes N/A | No N/A
• NL West Winners: -125 (1st favorite)
• National League Champions: +380 (T-1 favorite)
• World Series Winner: +750 (T-2 favorite)

Full NL West Season Preview

The AL is much murkier to break down, as it is essentially the Astros as the top tier, followed by the Yankees a step back, then everybody else. That “everybody else” category includes the Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, and Guardians, and out of that bunch, I have the least confidence in Tampa Bay. The Rays last season did make the playoffs, but to say they were necessarily encouraging would be a stretch in my eyes. Shane McClanahan fell off in the second half of the season, and there are already injury concerns surrounding Tyler Glasnow. After them, the depth is lacking, and the rest of the roster is young and inexperienced. While Wander Franco has a ton of upside, he isn’t there yet, nor is the rest of the lineup. In AL East, with the Yankees and Blue Jays over them, with the Red Sox and Orioles also competitive, I’m not crazy about Tampa at all. 

Why the Yankees and Jays could be too much for Tampa

Rays Season Odds

• Regular Season Wins Total: 91.5 Over (-110) Under (-110)
• To Make Playoffs: Yes -250 | No +198
• AL East Winners: +270 (3rd favorite)
• American League Champions: +900 (4th favorite)
• World Series Winner: +2000 (T-9 favorite)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook