NCAA Tournament: 4 1st-Round Upsets That Could Decide Your Pool

Every year, we have a team or two that get a little too enthusiastic with a lower seed and end up suffering heartbreak in the opening round. It’s heartbreaking for the fallen giant, but it’s equally painful for college basketball fans worldwide that see their bracket busted within the first 48 hours of the tournament. We look at four matchups we believe could wreak havoc in the opening two days of the NCAA Tournament.

#14 UC Santa Barbara over #3 Baylor

Baylor’s woeful defense will be to blame if they wreck brackets with a first-round exit. The Bears have a feeble D, easily the worst in the Big 12 and sub-100 in the nation. Their defense struggles against two-pointers, allowing 53.3 percent to opponents, ranking 314th in the country. UC Santa Barbara loves to score in the paint, getting 58 percent of their points from inside the arc, the 20th-highest rate in Division I. This matchup feels like a nightmare for the Bears and one that should be close right to the very end.

#15 Vermont over #2 Marquette

Based on most metrics, Marquette’s the weakest of the two seeds, and Vermont is part of the strongest grouping of 15 seeds we have seen recently. The Catamounts were their dominant selves throughout America East play this season, going 17-2 in the conference. They are home to the nation’s second-longest win streak at 15 and have some power conference experience from the non-conference, including a narrow two-point loss to USC. Marquette head coach Shaka Smart has lost his last five NCAA Tournament games, including a defeat as a three-seed in 2021.

#15 Colgate over #2 Texas

Texas blows Colgate away in athleticism, but the Raiders have some of the best shotmakers in college basketball. They lead the nation in both effective field-goal and three-point percentage and are elite at taking care of the ball, ranking 15th in Division I in turnover percentage. If they can take care of the ball and have a lights-out shooting night, there may not be enough that Texas can do to keep up.

#14 Louisiana over #3 Tennessee

This is more of a fade of Tennessee than anything. The Volunteers have stumbled to the finish line this season, dropping seven of their past 12 games. Sorting Bart Torvik’s T-Rank since the start of February, Tennessee ranks a lowly 35th in the country, a far fall from their season-long fifth overall ranking. Louisiana has the physicality to compete with Tennessee on the interior through star forward Jordan Brown, and they could ruin plenty of brackets if they pull.