Players Championship Picks: Who Wins PGA Tour’s Premier Event?

Professional golf is in a fascinating spot as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship this weekend.

While the Players might never get to the “fifth major” status the Tour desperately seeks, it’s still one of the premier events on the golf calendar. That gets taken to a different level this week with a $5 million increase in purse for the 2023 event. There’s now a whopping $25 million up for grabs, with $4.5 million going to the winner.

Since the Tour moved the Players to March, it held a spot as the first “big” tournament of the year with a full, star-studded field. This, however, is the first year of designated Tour events designed to have the best players in the world playing together more often. We’ve already seen a handful of those tournaments, including last week at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

And in some ways, golf fans might look back at 2023 as a one-of-a-kind year while the Tour transitions to the new schedule and format. Starting next year, a lot of those designated events — especially the non-majors — will have limited fields and won’t have a cut. The idea, the Tour says, is to not only ensure the best players are playing the same tournaments but also remain throughout the entire tournament.

That’s a big-picture win for the Tour, even if it is mocked by its detractors as a ripoff of the Saudi-backed LIV Golf league. For bettors and DFS players, though, it’s a bit of a bummer. A four-day golf sweat is one of the best sports-betting chases there is, and that goes away without cuts. As does any wagering around the cut itself. A limited field also eliminates some more exciting long-shot betting opportunities, not to mention the DFS player pool gets much tighter.

As for this week, it’s the rare instance of a defending champion not in the field to defend his crown. That’s because last year’s winner, Cam Smith, bolted for LIV at the end of the 2022 season. In fact, the top three finishers from 2022 now call LIV home.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the course plus a pick to win at each “tier” of the betting board.

TPC Sawgrass
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,256
Architect: Pete Dye

(All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

THE BIG GUNS (11-1 and shorter)
Pick: Jon Rahm (11-1)

The three best golfers in the world right now are Rory McIlroy (+850), Scottie Scheffler (+1000) and Rahm. Choosing among the three, it’s hard to go with anyone other than Rahm. He’s been the most consistent of the three, aside from a relative hiccup last week, and you’re getting the best of the numbers. Rahm might not have the same success here as someone like McIlroy, who has won, but there’s nowhere his game doesn’t play. This course has danger everywhere, especially off the tee, and no one combines power with accuracy off the tee like Rahm. He also has three wins in six starts this season, which is truly insane. Let’s just assume last week’s off-the-tee performance (the worst measured showing of his career) was just a blip on the radar.

THESE GUYS ARE “JUST” ELITE (+1600 to +3000)
Pick: Collin Morikawa (24-1)

This group is loaded with unbelievable ball-strikers who need just one week to get hot with the putter, and they’ll run away with it. There are major winners, multiple-time winners, former world No. 1s and on and on. It came down to Morikawa or Max Homa (+2100), and in the end, Morikawa is the play. He’s a more accomplished player at a better price, and when he’s been good this year, he’s been really good. He does have two missed cuts at elevated events, but he also has three top-10 finishes. The putter has been surprisingly good, and an elite ball striker like Morikawa should benefit from the soft track at Sawgrass.

THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK (+3100 to +10000)
Pick: Shane Lowry (46-1)

Lowry is one of a handful of players in the field who really, really like Pete Dye courses. He has three top-20 finishes at the Players, including an eighth-place showing in 2021. In his two most recent non-Players Dye starts, he finished tied for third at the RBC Heritage last year and tied for fourth at the 2021 PGA Championship (The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island). He had a rough go last week at the API, but he had consecutive top-20 finishes in the two tournaments prior. He also typically plays well in Florida.

LONG SHOTS (110-1 to 200-1)
Pick: Joel Dahmen (190-1)

Obviously slim pickings as you get near the bottom of the board. However, length off the tee isn’t as important at Sawgrass, so it brings players like Dahmen into play. He’s straight as an arrow off the tee, so he’ll put himself in position to go at some pins. He’s among the better Dye players in the field, with some solid showings at the Players, including a 12th-place finish in 2019.

BOMBS (210-1 and longer)
Pick: Sam Ryder (370-1)

If you’re going to go big, go really big, right? Ryder has had a nice little season so far, finishing fourth at the Farmers and two 20th-place finishes at Phoenix and the Genesis, respectively. Small detail: He missed the cut last week with an abysmal off-the-tee performance. He can go absolutely nuts with the putter, which means if he can put together one other part of his game, he could get hot for a weekend. He made the cut here for the first time in his career last year, so he’s familiar with the track. That’s grasping for straws, but it’s a lottery ticket. He also is 7-1 for a top 20, which might be a slightly more realistic play, all things considered.