UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen Preview & Best Bets

A top-five bantamweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night San Antonio as No. 3 Marlon Vera faces No. 5 Cory Sandhagen.

• Date: Saturday, March 25, 2023 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: AT&T Center – San Antonio, Texas | TV: ESPN2

Victor “El Magnifico” Altamirano has a 1-1 UFC record, winning five of his previous six fights. Facing him, Vinicius “Fenomeno” Salvador is riding a four-fight win streak. Salvador is an all-or-nothing fighter, picking up all 14 career wins by finish (13 KO/TKO, one submission) and losing three of four by finish (two KO/TKO, one submission). Altamirano is a little more conservative, seeing the judge’s scorecards six times in his 13 fights, but his four submission wins stick out of his 11 total victories.

Salvador will have a half-inch reach advantage and sees 93 percent of his wins comes by knockout. Additionally, Fenomeno averages 4.8 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Salvador lands 8.43 significant strikes per minute to Altamirano’s 7.04. However, Salvador absorbs 7.15 significant strikes per minute, 1.83 more than El Magnifico. Altamirano should have the grappling advantage, averaging 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Salvador has a 100 percent takedown defense rate.

Altamirano is 32 in a division that isn’t friendly to older fighters. Suppose you can find odds for Salvador to win by knockout, that probably holds the best value. However, right now, we only have Salvador to win outright available at -114.

A top-ten women’s bantamweight co-headlines this event as No. 3 Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm meets No. 6 Yana “Foxy” Santos. Holm has six career losses, five to UFC champions, with the only non-champion loss being a split decision to Ketlen Vieira. Holm (41) is eight years the senior of Santos (33). Foxy is also coming off a loss but has won two of her last three bouts.

Holm will be two inches taller and have a half-inch reach advantage. Holm averages 17:41 of fight time to Santo’s 11:13 and will have a slight power advantage. Santos lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute to Holm’s 3.24 and only absorbs 0.08 more. However, Holm will have superior defense if she keeps holding off Father Time. Santos averages almost twice the takedown attempts as Holm, but The Preacher’s Daughter stuffs 78 percent of takedowns.

At -250, Holm is a pretty significant outright favorite and holds more value to win by decision at -110.

• Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
• Odds to Win: Vera +138 | Sandhagen -170
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +200 | Submission +430 | Decision -145
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -128 | No -102

In what should be the most exciting fight on the card, Marlon “Chito” Vera faces Cory “The Sandman” Sandhagen. Vera is riding a four-fight win streak, including knockout wins over former UFC champs Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar. Sandhagen is 3-3 over his previous six bouts, beating Song Yadong, Edgar, and Marlon Moraes and losing to Aljamain Sterling, T.J. Dillashaw, and Petr Yan.

Sandhagen will be three inches taller, but Vera will have a half-inch reach advantage. Chito will have the power advantage, averaging 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Sandhagen lands more significant strikes per minute at 6.15 to Vera’s 4.28. The Sandman also absorbs 0.8 fewer significant strikes per minute. Both fighters have similar takedown attempts and defense rates, but Vera averages 0.69 more submissions per 15 minutes.

This bout should be a pick ’em, so Vera at +138 holds value.

• Salvador to win (-114)
• Holm by decision (-110)
• Vera to win (+138)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook