Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Betting Preview, Props, and Picks

The NBA’s Play-in Tournament gets underway tonight with an Eastern Conference tilt as the Miami Heat (No. 7) host the Atlanta Hawks (No. 8).

The winner clinches the seventh spot in the conference and will battle the Boston Celtics (No. 2) in the first round of the playoffs. The loser gets another shot at the playoffs against the 9-10 matchup winner on Friday night.

• Location: Kaseya Center | Miami, FL
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: TNT

Miami went 3-1 versus the Hawks during the regular season, although each game was decided by eight points or less.

What is each side’s weakness is the other’s strength. The Heat were dead last in scoring (109.5 PPG) but ranked second in points allowed (109.8 PPG). Atlanta, meanwhile, had the league’s third-ranked offense at 118.4 points per game, only to finish 26th defensively (118.1 PPG).

• Spread: Hawks +5 (-112) | Heat -5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Hawks +166 | Heat -198
• Total: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)

Atlanta’s chances will likely hinge on the performance of star point guard Trae Young. Young has struggled against Miami this season, averaging just 15.4 points on 32% shooting, and should again be the focus of Erik Spoelstra’s gameplan.

The Hawks will also have to try and slow down fellow star Jimmy Butler, who has notoriously upped his game when it matters most. The veteran has scored 40+ points six times while a member of the Heat, all coming in the postseason. Butler rises to the occasion yet again, and I’m rolling with Miami on an outright basis. 

• De’Andre Hunter OVER 3.5 Rebounds (-158)
• Bam Adebayo OVER 19.5 Points (-115)

Atlanta’s De’Andre Hunter is one of my favorite value plays on the board. The 25-year-old has topped his 3.5 rebounds prop in six of his past seven games. With a playoff spot on the line and a tight spread, Hunter could log nearly 40 minutes, which should be ample time to make an impact on the glass. Give me the OVER.

Miami’s Bam Adebayo averaged a career-high 20.4 points in 75 games this season, nearly a whole point more than tonight’s prop. The 25-year-old scored 20 or more points in three of the four regular-season meetings against the Hawks, including a pair of 30-point performances.

Throw in the fact that Atlanta allows the second-most points in the paint, and it all adds up to a big night for Adebayo in the scoring department. Bet the OVER, and don’t think twice.