NHL Best Bets: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game Picks

In one week, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs will open their playoff series, but first, they face each other tonight.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Maple Leafs are set to play for a second consecutive night after defeating Florida 2-1 in overtime. This will be the second year in a row that these teams have faced off in the postseason. Last year, the Lightning got the better of the Leafs in seven games. The Lightning are favorites on the moneyline tonight at -152, while the Leafs are +126. This will be the third and final matchup of the regular season between these clubs, which has seen Tampa Bay pick up a 4-3 win and the Maple Leafs a 4-1 victory.

Entering this matchup, the Maple Leafs have won two in a row, posting a 6-2-2 record over their last ten games, while the Lightning have lost three straight, going 3-7.

Looking toward the projected goalie matchup, the visiting Maple Leafs are expected to start Ilya Samsonov, while the Lightning should counter with Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Maple Leafs’ netminder has a 27-10-5 record with a .919 save percentage, while Vasilevskiy is 34-21-4 with a .916 save percentage.

The Maple Leafs have nothing to prove, and this matchup will be about setting the tone for their upcoming playoff series. The Lightning need to find their groove before the postseason hits, so we feel comfortable backing their moneyline price at -152. 

Best Bet: Lightning moneyline (-152) 

The first two matchups between these clubs saw seven and five goals scored. The total for tonight is set at 6.5, with the over an under priced at -110. The Leafs and Lightning sit in the top ten in goals scored per game. Over the Maple Leafs’ last five games, they’ve seen seven or more goals scored in two, while the Lightning have seen that in three. Don’t expect either team to give up their defensive strategies in this matchup, so this could be a good spot to target a high-scoring affair. 

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-110) 

There’s a lot of offensive talent in this matchup. One player that stands out for the Lightning is their captain, Steven Stamkos. The Lightning forward leads the club with three goals over their last five games and has registered 83 points in 79 games. With how well Stamkos has been playing this season, there’s a lot of value in backing him to score tonight at +190. 

Best Prop: Steven Stamkos to Record Over 0.5 Goals (+190)