Things didn’t go how the Edmonton Oilers planned in their series opener against the Los Angeles Kings. Edmonton blew a 3-1 third-period lead, eventually dropping Game 1 to the visitors in overtime. However, the Oilers deserved better against their division rivals, outplaying them in virtually every facet of the game.
With Game 2 looming Wednesday night, Edmonton faces a critical test. Lose, and they head down to SoCal with their backs against the wall versus a dangerous Kings squad. With metrics on their side, we anticipate a better outcome for the Oilers before the series shifts venues.
Kings @ Oilers Game InformationEdmonton flew out of the gates on Monday night, staking itself to a 2-0 lead in the first period. They maintained that lead through most of the contest, heading into the final ten minutes of regulation up 3-1. Although they couldn’t maintain their advantage, the Oilers thoroughly dismantled the Kings from start to finish.
The Oilers posted a 61.8% Corsi rating, out-chancing LA in scoring chances 37-23 and 17-9 in high-danger opportunities. Edmonton nearly doubled the Kings shot attempts at five-on-five, delivering 36 shots on target compared to LA’s 21. Still, they recorded just two goals for a forgettable 5.6% shooting percentage.
Monday’s effort substantially deviated from the Oilers’ regular season benchmark of 9.1%. Moreover, it contributed to an unsustainable 92.5% save percentage from Joonas Korpisalo.
Monday’s effort was par for the course in this matchup. LA was outplayed in three of their four meetings, posting a cumulative 45.7% expected goals-for rating. As expected, Edmonton controlled the play in most of those contests. The Oilers attempted at least ten high-danger chances in three of four and out-chanced the Kings in scoring opportunities each time.
Further, LA didn’t produce enough to offset its poor defensive play. The Kings were limited to nine or fewer quality chances in all but one of those matchups, failing to eclipse 25 scoring opportunities in any game. That negatively impacted output, with the Kings being limited to one or fewer goals at five-on-five in three of four.
The Oilers have been the superior team. They substantially outplayed the Kings in four of five, saving their best performance for the playoffs. The betting line doesn’t accurately reflect their dominance, and we expect this to shift in favor of the hosts ahead of puck drop.
Edmonton needs their best players to shine if they hope to pull level in the opening round series, and that means Leon Draisaitl needs to continue to produce. The German center potted two in Game 1, extending the hot streak to end his season. Draisaitl scored eight times over the final ten games of the regular season, helping him surpass the 50-goal plateau for the second straight year and the third time in five seasons.
Dating back to the regular season, Draisaitl has directed 24 shots on net over his past seven games. Additionally, he’s lifted by solid production metrics and spends a ton of time in the attacking zone and on the powerplay. If the Oilers hope to prevail, it will likely include Draisaitl finding the back of the net again. He’s worth backing as an any-time goal scorer.