SportsGrid NBA Player Props Model: Joel Embiid the Playmaker?

Bettors are faced with a five-game slate in the NBA on Thursday as the regular season nears its conclusion. Using SportsGrid’s Player Props Model, I’ve highlighted three of my top plays, starting with a rookie out in San Antonio.

Note: All odds and props courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

SA Malaki Branham: Under 2.5 3-point FG Made vs. Trail Blazers (-172)

SportsGrid Model Rating = 5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 1.5

San Antonio’s first round draft pick last June, Branham, has struggled from three-point range this season, shooting just 31.1% in 63 games. The 19-year-old averages 1.2 made threes per game – 1.3 below tonight’s market number. While the Trail Blazers represent a solid matchup, Branham has made three or more triples twice in his last nine games. Give me the under.

SportsGrid Model Rating = 4.5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 6.3

Butler is coming off an eight-rebound performance against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday, the fourth time he’s notched seven or more boards in his past nine games. Averaging 5.9 rebounds on the season, the six-time All-Star may be even busier on the glass with teammate Bam Adebayo questionable due to a quad injury. With Miami looking to avoid the play-in tournament, I think Butler comes to play tonight and represents solid value at plus money. 

PHI Joel Embiid: Over 3.5 Assists vs. Heat (+112)

SportsGrid Model Rating = 4/5 Stars
Model Projection = 4.0

We’ll keep the value train rolling with Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers. While the big man is known for his dominance in the scoring department, he remains an underrated playmaker, averaging 4.2 assists on the season. Entering Thursday, Embiid has topped his 3.5 assists prop in two straight games and four of his past six. At plus money, the likely MVP is one of my favorite plays on the board.