UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs. Allen Betting Preview & Best Bets

A top-five featherweight bout headlines UFC Kansas City as No. 2 Max Holloway faces No. 4 Arnold Allen.

• Date: Saturday, April 15, 2023 | Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: AT&T Center – San Antonio, Texas | TV: ESPN+

No. 4 ranked flyweight Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval takes on No. 5 Matheus Nicolau in what could end up being the most action-packed bout on the card. Royval is 2-2 over his past four contests, riding a two-fight win streak after dropping the previous two. Nicolau has a six-fight win streak. His past four wins took place in the UFC, beating Manel Kape, Tim Elliott, David Dvorak, and Matt Schnell.

Royval is three inches taller and will have a two-inch reach advantage. He’s a very athletic fighter that uses his jab well on the feet. Nicolau will have the power edge, averaging 0.51 more knockdowns per 15 minutes and 3.72 significant strikes landed to Royval’s 3.32. Raw Dawg is a dangerous submission grappler, averaging 2.44 submissions per 15 minutes to Nicolau’s 0.91. However, Nicolau will have the takedown advantage.

Royval is a riskier fighter, even willing to jump a submission, but Nicolau is the safer bet. Take Nicolau to win by points at +180.

Edson Barboza has had a rough time lately, losing five of his past seven fights, while Billy Quarantillo is 5-2 over his seven UFC fights. Barboza is an exciting fighter, possessing excellent striking and above-average ability on the ground. Unfortunately, throughout his career, Barboza couldn’t overcome his weaknesses (a lack of takedown defense and moving backward). At 37 years old, those weaknesses will be pronounced in this fight.

Barboza will have a one-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage. He has a litany of striking victims on his highlight reel, but Quarantillo has shown good endurance in his previous bouts. If Barboza can’t land a knockout blow early, Quarantillo will overwhelm him with volume as he averages 3.92 more significant strikes landed. Barboza will not take this contest to the ground, but Quarantillo could if he needs to, averaging 1.55 takedowns and 1.24 submissions per 15 minutes.

This matchup is terrible for Barboza, and, at this point in his career, he is likely being used to build Quarantillo’s name value. Take Quarantillo to win at -188.

• Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen
• Odds to Win: Holloway -188 | Allen +152
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +145 | Submission +700 | Decision -135
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -122 | No -104

Max “Blessed” Holloway is a problem for the UFC, beating everyone at featherweight outside of the champion Alexander Volkanovski. Unfortunately, they’ve already fought each other three times, with Volkanovski winning all three. Arnold “Almighty” Allen enters on a 12-fight win streak, ten of which were UFC bouts.

Holloway is three inches taller, but Allen will have a one-inch reach advantage. Holloway is an excellent volume puncher with an endless gas tank. Blessed averages 7.24 significant strikes landed per minute to Allen’s 3.4 but absorbs 2.64 more. However, Holloway doesn’t stop and has a rare will to win. Allen averages 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes to Holloway’s 0.29. Still, both fighters have good takedown defense, making it unlikely that this fight will hit the ground.

The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Holloway. He doesn’t have great knockout power but is constant with his striking. Outside of another Volkanovski showdown, I won’t bet against Holloway at featherweight. Take Blessed to win at -188.

• Nicolau by Points (+180)
• Quarantillo to Win (-188)
• Holloway to Win (-188)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook