Buy or Sell: Houston Astros to Win the AL West

The Houston Astros are coming off winning the World Series in 2022, but is there value in them continuing their dominance in the AL West this year? Houston got off to a slow start to the regular season. Some may call that a World Series hangover. We’d be inclined to agree with that sentiment, but those early struggles have now passed, and the Astros are back doing exactly what we’re accustomed to them doing: winning ball games. 

Houston has one of the deepest batting orders in baseball, led by the likes of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman. The list goes on and on from one to nine with their hitters, which is evidently the biggest strength this team has to offer in 2023. The Astros have scored 137 runs and have a +22 run differential to this point, which is third in the division right now behind the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. With their offense not missing a beat after winning the World Series, the concerns for this team in 2023 reside elsewhere. 

This is one of the most talented squads in baseball, but there are still some question marks that might make you pause when considering them to win the AL West again. First, the Astros have some concerns about their starting rotation, which became even more evident after Justin Verlander signed with the New York Mets in the offseason. Astros management didn’t really replace Verlander, not that you can really do such a thing with a pitcher that just won the AL Cy Young, but still.

They’ve suffered some early season injuries in their rotation, with Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia all sidelined. When you went into the season expecting that your depth would help with the loss of Verlander, three injuries to key components of the rotation didn’t inspire confidence. 

It hasn’t been a dominant first 31 games in the regular season for the Houston Astros, which has them currently trailing the AL West-leading Texas Rangers by 2.5 games. The Rangers and Angels both have planted themselves ahead of Houston inside the division, but is it likely that notion holds true for a full 162-game schedule? We don’t believe so.

The Astros are currently listed as -165 favorites to win the AL West. Although that price tag has some juice attached, there’s not enough for bettors to avoid looking toward Houston. The Rangers and Angels could very well be playoff contenders in the American League, but the Astros are a different beast, and there’s still value in buying into their price to win the AL West price at -165 because of their slow start.