Heat-Celtics Preview: A Comeback on Butler's Watch?

The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will meet for Game 5 tonight in Beantown after the Celts pulled off a resilient Game 4 victory in South Beach when they were already counted out. Could they be the first team to come back from a 0-3 deficit? Well, we certainly can’t dismiss that, as the FanDuel Sportsbook currently only has Miami as -260 favorites to advance to the NBA Finals.Heat @ Celtics Game Information

• Location: TD Garden | Boston, MA
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | TV: TNT

As much as I don’t think Boston could come back from this deficit, a few facts remain. They are eight-point favorites tonight, will be favorites in Game 6 if they win tonight, and seemingly will be favorites on their home floor in a potential Game 7. Miami seemed completely relaxed as their Game 5 defeat became a reality and were very calm in post-game press conferences, but the fact remains, you can’t let the Celtics hang around with a sliver of hope.

• Spread: Heat +8 (-112) | Celtics -8 (-108)
• Moneyline: Heat (+240) | Celtics (-295)
• Total: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)

This game will be won and lost in the first quarter tonight. TD Garden will be electrifying at the jump, but if Miami takes an early lead, I don’t see Joe Mazzulla and Co. having the fortitude to rally back. Led by Jimmy Butler, the Heat are a team full of killers that will put their foot down on the Celtics’ throat if they get the sense the boo birds are coming out from the Boston crowd. Erik Spoelstra will have a completely different approach drawn up, and I question Boston’s ability to adapt on the fly. I’ll be taking the points here with the Heat.

• Jimmy Butler OVER 35.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)
• Jayson Tatum OVER 30.5 Points (-113)
• Caleb Martin OVER 12.5 Points (-115)

We already know Jimmy Butler will do whatever it takes to put his team in the best spot to succeed, as he’s etched himself as one of the NBA’s all-time playoff performers. He’s combined for 35 or more points and rebounds in three of four games this series, and I fully envision him putting his team on his shoulders tonight once more offensively. I’ll pay extra attention to the glass, as he’s had 8+ rebounds in each of the last three games. 

As much as I’m waiting for Jaylen Brown to flip that switch and make his mark in this series, Jayson Tatum has proved himself as the alpha and has come up the most when his team’s backs are against the wall. After dropping a rather impressive 33 points in Game 4, I expect him to take even more command on his home floor tonight, so I’ll back his value despite it being slightly, but deservedly, juiced to 30.5.

Caleb Martin’s production has been one of this series’s most under-talked-about things. He’s averaged 18.5 points per game this series on nearly 12 shots per game. He’s been getting strong looks from beyond the arc especially, and I see no reason not to back this line when it’s been working every game. I’ll also be sprinkling him to go for 15+ points at +150.