Lakers-Nuggets Preview: LA Bounce Back in Store

The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets will meet tonight for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, with the Nuggets holding a 1-0 series lead. Denver is now -280 to advance to the NBA Finals and the betting favorite to win it all at +140 on the FanDuel Sportsbook.Lakers @ Nuggets Game Information

• Location: Ball Arena | Denver, CO
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN

Game 1 was the Nikola Jokic show. Putting up a stat line of 34 points, 21 rebounds, and 14 assists, he had his hands on every facet of the game. The Lakers did make a fourth-quarter comeback mainly due to a Darvin Ham defensive adjustment, placing Rui Hachimura on Jokic and allowing Anthony Davis to be a roamer in the paint. It nearly worked with the Lakers threatening to steal the game deep in the fourth, but it still provided LA with a blueprint heading into tonight.

• Spread: Lakers +5.5 (-108) | Nuggets -5.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Lakers (+176) | Nuggets (-210)
• Total: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)

While many expect the Lakers’ fourth-quarter defensive adjustments to impact tonight significantly, Mike Malone is a heck of a coach, and Jokic is an intelligent player. They’ll figure out alternatives. With that being said, I came into this series anticipating LA to split the first two games, and I’m sticking to it. Anthony Davis dominated the floor Tuesday, dropping 40 points, with LeBron James an assist shy of a triple-double himself. The Lakers have been a resilient group all year, and I expect them to respond tonight, carrying over the fourth-quarter momentum. I’ll take the Lakers with the points and sprinkle in some for them to win outright.

• Nikola Jokic UNDER 28.5 Points (-102)
• LeBron James UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (-130)
• LeBron James Top Points Scorer (+370)

I’m not banking this Jokic under tout completely on Rui Hachimura. Yes, the adjustment looked awesome, but I also anticipate a much better defensive game from Anthony Davis, who was looking like Deandre Ayton out there in Game 1. Jokic has been on an absolute scoring heater, something he’s obviously not known for. In my eyes, he’s due for some regression eventually, and this is the ideal spot for it.

LeBron hauled in an impressive 12 boards in Game 1, but they came on only 16 rebound chances for a high 75% conversion rate. That’s unlikely to carry over. Plus, Anthony Davis only totaled 10 boards in Game 1, a relatively low number given his postseason numbers, so I expect more from him. I’d tout the Anthony Davis over for a pair of correlated plays, too, but I’m more confident in LeBron’s under for a single play.

Instead of touting LeBron’s point over for added value, I like for LeBron to be the top scorer in the game at nearly 4-1 value. To start, we already are fading Nikola Jokic, and given AD’s inconsistencies, we aren’t banking on another high offensive output from him. Jamal Murray is a threat, but if the Lakers win as we anticipate, Murray wouldn’t have a better game than LeBron. After going 0-4 from three in Game 1 and only taking 16 shots, LeBron will put more on his shoulders, with his team in jeopardy of going down 0-2. I really think there is some substantial value here.