NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Value Plays

We’re a week removed from the 2023 NFL Draft, and the Defensive Rookie of the Year Market is beginning to take shape. On the FanDuel Sportsbook, Will Anderson Jr. of the Houston Texans is the frontrunner at +340 and was the first defensive player taken. Out of Alabama, he’s a talented player who immediately becomes the centerpiece of the Texans’ defense, but is he the best value?

We’re looking to target a few value plays in this market.

Throughout the college season, Jalen Carter was almost the consensus top prospect in the draft. Months passed, and questions about off-the-field issues pushed Carter down the boards to the reigning NFC Champions. Let me tell you, as much as the Eagles need Carter; he needs the Eagles. Entering a defensive line room with the solid veteran leadership of Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham will give Carter the right mindset. He’ll slot in as a starter, replacing Javon Hargrave, who accounted for 11 sacks last year. The opportunity is there, and Carter has all the talent to make the most of it.

Christian Gonzalez falling to the Patriots at No. 17 was one of the bigger surprises of the first round, but it worked out well for Gonzalez. Coming in as a potential top-ten pick in most mock drafts, Gonzalez enters a Patriots locker room likely as the team’s No. 1 corner. His situation is similar to Sauce Gardner’s with the Jets, entering a depleted secondary and being handed the keys. Sauce went on to win ROY, so Gonzalez has a similar value.

Emmanuel Forbes was picked by the Commanders one spot before Gonzalez and also has a chance to enter a Commanders’ defense as the No. 1 corner. Interceptions draw voters’ focus, and Forbes had 14 over three years at Mississippi State. Like Gonzalez, there is little competition in the Commanders’ secondary, allowing Forbes to control the narrative if he can carry over his ball-hawking ability to the next level. 

We’re looking to fade two of the top four guys in this market: Tyree Wilson and Devon Witherspoon. Wilson was drafted seventh by the Raiders but fell down draft boards due to questions about a foot injury. He is also considered a raw prospect and enters a crowded defensive end room with established stars Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby. Regarding Witherspoon, he will be an incredible NFL corner but will probably be overshadowed by Tariq Woolen. The narrative is not on his side in this market.