NHL Playoffs: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers Game 4 Betting Preview & Picks

Everyone holding a Florida Panthers to advance past the Toronto Maple Leafs ticket is sitting pretty. The wild card Panthers have built themselves a 3-0 series lead against their division rivals, needing just one win to move onto the Conference Finals for the first time since 1996. 

Still, this iteration of the Leafs isn’t the type of squad to roll over. Auston Matthews and company have mounted 23 come-from-behind victories this season, third in the NHL. Additionally, they were down 1-0 in their series against the Tampa Bay Lightning before winning four of their next five. Although they face an uphill climb, don’t be so quick to rule out the Leafs.

• Location: FLA Live Arena | Sunrise, Florida
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC

Toronto’s top priority will be insulating third-string netminder Joseph Woll. Woll replaces Ilya Samsonov, who left less than a minute into the second period after colliding with defenseman Luke Schenn. Woll looked out of sorts in his second relief appearance of the postseason, but overall, he’s been a stellar contributor when called upon. 

Leading up to the playoffs, the former third-round pick was exceptional. Woll posted a 6-1-0 record with 2.16 goals against average and a 93.2% save percentage. Moreover, he was the Leafs’ best penalty killer, stopping 41 of 43 powerplay shots for a 95.3% save percentage.

Up until Round 1, Woll’s only action came as a starter. As such, we’re not using the last couple of relief appearances to gauge how effective he can be in the net.

• Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190) | Panthers +1.5 (-235)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs -125 | Panthers +104
• Total: OVER 6.5 (-134) | UNDER 6.5 (+110)

The Maple Leafs have gotten away from their usually stout defensive efforts this postseason. Toronto has given up ten or more high-danger chances in six of nine playoff games, limiting opponents to an average of 9.4 during the regular season. That average has jumped to 11.7 over the Leafs’ previous nine outings, implying they are progression candidates over their coming games as they get back to a more structured approach. 

Toronto has been particularly adept at insulating their young goalie. The Leafs have allowed nine or fewer high-danger opportunities in all but one of Woll’s starts, allowing an average of 7.7 per game. A similar effort will be required in Game 4, and offensive regression could also inhibit Florida. 

• Maple Leafs -125 | UNDER 6.5 +110
• Auston Matthews Any Time Goal Scorer +100

Florida has turned the afterburners on over their recent sample, winning six straight games. Still, that success is contraindicated by their metrics. The Panthers have been outplayed in all but two of those contests, giving up ten or more high-danger chances in four of six. 

The more concerning trend is their overachieving offense. The Panthers score on 11.5% of their shots at five-on-five, a substantial deviation from their regular season average of 8.5%.

Additionally, the increase in scoring has come despite a diminished production, implying the Panthers are regression candidates over the coming stretch. Florida has attempted eight or fewer quality chances in three of six and will face an even stiffer challenge on Wednesday.

The Leafs will need their best players to salvage their postseason aspirations. Not surprisingly, Matthews has been a pillar for Toronto, leading the forward corps in scoring opportunities while ranking second in high-danger chances. Despite the sustained production, Matthews’s PDO has fallen to .963, suggesting he’s a progression candidate as his on-ice shooting percentage (7.4%) creeps back to average (11.5%).

We are betting Matthews does his part, and the Maple Leafs secure the victory in a low-scoring affair.