Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers Series Betting Preview & Picks

Puck drops on the second round of the NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, with the Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night. Both teams had unsuspecting paths through Round 1. The Maple Leafs undid 19 years of perpetual disappointment, earning their first playoff series victory since 2004. Although the Panthers have enjoyed postseason success more recently, they weren’t expected to advance past the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins, particularly after trailing 3-1 in the wild-card matchup. 

Now, Florida is tasked with advancing past the second-best team in the division, attempting to pull off their consecutive series victories as substantive underdogs. However, the Panthers may have exhausted their puck luck against the Bruins, putting them at an even bigger disadvantage against the analytically gifted Maple Leafs. 

Uncontent to rest on their laurels, the Leafs could be barreling towards their first Conference Finals appearance since 2002.

• Game 1: TOR vs. FLA – May 2 @ 7 pm ET
• Game 2: TOR vs. FLA – May 4 @ 7 pm ET
• Game 3: FLA vs. TOR – TBD
• Game 4: FLA vs. TOR – TBD
• *Game 5: TOR vs. FLA – TBD
• *Game 6: FLA vs. TOR – TBD
• *Game 7: TOR vs. FLA – TBD 

The Panthers controlled the first couple of games against Boston, posting expected goals-for ratings above 57.0% in Games 1 and 2. Things fell apart from there, with Florida getting outplayed in four of the last five games, accumulating a 46.2% expected goals-for rating. Still, the wild card squad managed to pull off upset after upset, winning three of those five contests. In doing so, the Panthers elevated their PDO to 1.017, the third-highest among remaining playoff teams. 

More concerningly, Florida overachieved offensively, putting them at risk of regression against the high-flying Maple Leafs. The Panthers exceeded their expected goals total in three straight to end the first round, out-pacing their anticipated benchmark of 7.21 with ten tallies at five-on-five. That difference is more pronounced across all strengths, scoring 17 compared to an expected total of 12.45.

• Series Price: Maple Leafs -176 | Panthers +142
• Eastern Conference Odds: Maple Leafs +175 | Panthers +450
• Stanley Cup Odds: Maple Leafs +380 | Panthers +1100

Analytically, the Maple Leafs enter the Conference Semifinals on more sustainable footing. The Original Six franchise split their opening-round series with the Tampa Bay Lightning, outplaying their divisional rivals in three of six outings. Toronto separated themselves with solid offensive performances, a trend that should continue against the exploitable Panthers. 

The Leafs attempted ten or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their past six games, averaging 10.8 per game. That’s on par with their regular season benchmark of 11.1. But they’ll face less structure from the other Florida-based team, as the Panthers ended the campaign as one of the worst defending teams in the league. 

This season, Florida allowed the 12th-most high-danger chances per game, with an average of 10.0. The B’s added to those woes over the final five games of Round 1, going north of ten in all but two of those matchups. Arguably, the Leafs’ scoring depth is superior to the Bruins, implying that the Panthers’ goalies will have to weather a more intense attack in the second round. 

• Maple Leafs -176
• Series Handicap – Maple Leafs -1.5 +114

Goaltending concerns will exacerbate defensive zone coverage issues. The Panthers alternated between Alex Lyon on Sergei Bobrovsky, with neither netminder looking comfortable between the pipes. Bobrovsky took control of the blue paint toward the end of the series. Still, he posted save percentages below 89.0% in three of his five appearances, getting torched for at least three goals against in all four of his starts. Consequently, Bobrovsky is toting around an inflated 3.94 goals against average and sub-optimal 89.1% save percentage. 

Combined with the anticipated offensive regression, the Panthers are between a rock and a hard place against the Leafs. Those issues will be compounded by short rest, as Florida went the full seven against Boston, securing a second-round berth on Sunday. 

That’s a more significant disadvantage than what’s reflected in the betting odds, leaving an edge in backing the higher-seeded Maple Leafs. We’re betting Toronto doesn’t need the full allotment of games, covering the -1.5 series handicap.