Buy or Sell: Ohio State to Win the National Championship

How does a team bounce back after coming close but losing in a heartbreaking fashion?

That’s the question on many minds surrounding the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes fell short in the first round of the 2022 College Football Playoff, losing by a single point (42-41) to the Georgia Bulldogs in the Peach Bowl. 

How would the country talk about Ryan Day and Ohio State if Noah Ruggles connected on his 50-yard field goal attempt with just three seconds remaining? Considering the Bulldogs would go on to lay a beating (65-7) on the TCU Horned Frogs in the National Championship, one has to wonder what the outcome would’ve been had a play or two gone the Buckeyes’ way.

Could’ve, would’ve, should’ve — none of that matters now. As it stands, Ryan Day finds himself in a precarious position where he’s advanced to a single National Championship across four full seasons in Columbus. While that sounds fine to some, the bar at Ohio State is high. Losing to Michigan two years in a row doesn’t help, either. 

Where does that leave Ohio State entering 2023? Let’s take a look at BetMGM‘s futures odds and betting insights to gain a little clarity. 

BetMGM College Football Odds: National Championship

• Georgia +225
• Ohio State +600
• Alabama +600
• Michigan +1000

Ohio State is tied with Alabama for the second-shortest odds to win it all. Unsurprisingly, both are behind the reigning back-to-back National Champions, Kirby Smart‘s Georgia Bulldogs. What is a bit surprising is that Ohio State (+600) has shorter odds than Jim Harbaugh‘s Michigan Wolverines (+1000).

I’d favor the Wolverines in the Big Ten race this season. Harbaugh returns quarterback J.J. McCarthy and tremendous running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, so they should be fine on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, the defense returns six starters and appears set for another great season, with star cornerback Will Johnson only set to improve in his second year.

Ohio State has questions offensively after losing both tackles and quarterback C.J. Stroud. They struggled on that side of the ball in the spring game, and the defense must improve after allowing 43.5 points per game to Michigan and Georgia. 

• Michigan 14.0%
• Alabama 11.5%
• Ohio State 10.1%

• Georgia 16.0%
• Michigan 15.7%
• Alabama 12.6%

Ohio State is receiving some love in the betting market as 10.1% of tickets have been placed backing Day and Company. You’ll notice that the Buckeyes didn’t crack the top three in terms of the handle, which could reflect that not enough big-money tickets are buying this as a breakthrough year.

This is still an elite program and a College Football Playoff appearance is in play, but I’m not buying the Buckeyes having the second-shortest odds in the nation. There are still a lot of questions to answer in what could be a down year. The schedule does them no favors with road trips against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Michigan. 

They have the talent to compete with anyone, but the road ahead is bumpier than in years past.

Verdict: Sell