James Harden’s Free Agency Update and Prediction

Does anyone know what’s going on with James Harden?

He’s the biggest free agent available this summer, and with so many conflicting reports, we must wait until he actually decides to get definitive answers.

Shams Charnia of The Athletic reports that James Harden is torn between returning to the Philadelphia 76ers or heading south back to the Rockets, with past reports signaling a definitive return to Houston.

For Harden, no one knows where he wants to be and what his motivations are. If he is approaching from a lifestyle perspective, Houston is the obvious choice. He lives and trains there in the offseason, his family is there year-round, and he has a legacy and footprint in the community.

On the court, the 76ers are the most realistic option. Harden and Joel Embiid formed one of the best tandems, even though it came crashing down in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. With Nick Nurse as the new head coach, running it back with new ideas and a fresh voice could get the most out of the duo.

Financially, no one has a clue where this is headed. Last month it was thought that the Rockets were willing to give Harden max money while the 76ers were unwilling. However, some say he’s using the Rockets as leverage to get more from the 76ers. Harden will get his money, maybe not a max deal, but enough to keep him happy.

Harden will not sign somewhere just to sign somewhere. Wherever he goes, there will be meaning behind it. Houston is self-explanatory, Philly is his current home, and ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne says people must “keep an eye on” the Phoenix Suns as a potential suitor. Harden’s collegiate tenure at Arizona State and continued friendship with Kevin Durant could drive a desire to play in Phoenix. Still, it would be hard to orchestrate. Phoenix doesn’t have the cap room to sign Harden on the open market, so they’d need Philadelphia to cooperate in a sign-and-trade. I don’t see Philly being interested in anyone on the Suns’ roster, including Chris Paul.

If you asked me where Harden would end up following the 76ers’ Game 7 disaster, I would have said Houston. After a month, I think the Sixers have the upper hand. To start, the basketball fit of Harden in Houston makes no sense. He’d be an aging ball-dominant player that would take opportunities away from young, promising pieces on the Rockets roster. Jalen Green shined in the second half of the Rockets’ season, becoming an on-ball facilitator. There is no reason to mess with his development by forcing the ball into Harden’s hands. Plus, the chatter surrounding Houston’s unwillingness to give Harden max money is getting louder. 

Returning alongside Embiid with Nurse’s oversight is where I think this ends. The chemistry between Harden and Embiid will continue to grow, and Philly can dump Tobias Harris’s expiring contract this offseason for a complimentary piece alongside the duo.

Despite how crushing the Game 7 loss was, people shouldn’t forget how close the Sixers were to overcoming their second-round hurdle. The Sixers have nowhere to turn if Harden walks, so I see them doing everything in their power to retain him at a reasonable rate.