We turn our attention to the MLB matchup between the New York Mets (+163) and Atlanta Braves (-193). The Mets are struggling, having dropped their last five games, and now face the formidable Spencer Strider on the mound for the Braves. The total for this contest is set at 8.5 runs.
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Notably, the weather might play a significant role in this game. It’s expected to be 80 degrees in Atlanta, with double-digit winds blowing out to center field. These conditions can certainly contribute to the total runs scored in a game and could be a contributing factor to the higher total set by oddsmakers.
On the Mets side, they’ll have Justin Verlander on the mound. Despite a shaky performance two starts ago, Verlander had a strong bounce back in his last outing. Interestingly, despite Verlander and Strider’s solid pitching profiles, the total is set at 8.5, reflecting the ballpark and weather conditions more than the pitchers’ recent performances.
Is there a Verlander K prop among SportsGrid’s Best Daily MLB Prop Picks?
Strider comes into this game with an impressive 3.62 xFIP and a near 40% K rate over his last 100 batters faced. His strikeout prop for this game is 8.5, with the over coming in at plus money. However, he’s also a -170 favorite to strike out at least eight batters, demonstrating his strikeout capabilities.
The Braves have a strong trend in their favor as well, with a 20-10-1 record for home games going over the listed total. While Strider is likely to perform well, it’s worth considering this trend when placing bets on the total.
The anticipated lineup for the Mets might be a cause for concern, as Pete Alonso is expected to be absent after being hit by a pitch. The remaining lineup will certainly have their work cut out for them against Strider.
Considering all these factors, the under 8.5 seems like a reasonable bet, given Strider’s excellent strikeout rate and Verlander’s recent bounce-back performance. However, as always, remember to consider the latest lineup information and weather conditions before placing your bets.
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 | -142 | O 8.5 | -108 | +148 | Open |
| -129 | 8.5 | -107 | +163 | Current | ||
| Braves | -1.5 | +120 | U 8.5 | -112 | -174 | Open |
| +109 | 8.5 | -113 | -193 | Current | ||
Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander: 2-3, 4.25 ERA, 7.50 K/9
| 1. | CF | Brandon Nimmo | .284, 4 HR, 21 RBI |
| 2. | SS | Francisco Lindor | .216, 11 HR, 42 RBI |
| 3. | 2B | Jeff McNeil | .277, 2 HR, 17 RBI |
| 4. | 1B | Pete Alonso | .231, 22 HR, 49 RBI |
| 5. | 3B | Brett Baty | .231, 4 HR, 16 RBI |
| 6. | RF | Starling Marte | .245, 3 HR, 17 RBI |
| 7. | DH | Daniel Vogelbach | .203, 2 HR, 14 RBI |
| 8. | LF | Mark Canha | .238, 5 HR, 18 RBI |
| 9. | C | Francisco Alvarez | .238, 9 HR, 20 RBI |
Starting Pitcher: Spencer Strider: 6-2, 2.97 ERA, 14.60 K/9
| 1. | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | .331, 12 HR, 33 RBI |
| 2. | 1B | Matt Olson | .232, 17 HR, 43 RBI |
| 3. | 3B | Austin Riley | .271, 10 HR, 30 RBI |
| 4. | C | Travis d’Arnaud | .278, 1 HR, 8 RBI |
| 5. | LF | Eddie Rosario | .250, 8 HR, 25 RBI |
| 6. | 2B | Ozzie Albies | .258, 13 HR, 39 RBI |
| 7. | DH | Marcell Ozuna | .235, 11 HR, 25 RBI |
| 8. | SS | Orlando Arcia | .317, 4 HR, 15 RBI |
| 9. | CF | Michael Harris II | .181, 3 HR, 11 RBI |
