UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria Preview & Best Bets

A top-10 featherweight bout headlines UFC on ABC as No. 5 Josh Emmett takes on No. 9 Ilia Topuria.

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• Date: Saturday, June 24, 2023 | Time: 3:00 p.m. ET | TV: ABC
• Location: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena | Jacksonville, Florida
• Read More: Undercard Best Bets

• Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
• Odds to Win: Emmett +270 | Topuria -355
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -110 | Submission +140 | Decision +480
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +480 | No -800

A 38-year-old Josh “The Fighting Falmer” Emmett takes on 26-year-old Ilia “El Matador” Topuria.

Emmett is fresh off losing to Yair Rodriguez for the interim UFC Featherweight Championship. Over his last six bouts, Emmett is 5-1, while Topuria is undefeated at 13-0 overall and is 6-0 in the UFC. Of those six UFC fights, Topuria finished three by knockout and one by submission.

Topuria is one inch taller, but Emmett will have a one-inch reach advantage. Both fighters average over a knockdown per 15 minutes, Emmett at 1.07 and Topuria at 1.23. Emmett is a volume fighter, landing 4.17 significant strikes per minute but absorbing 4.43. Meanwhile, Topuria averages 3.32 significant strikes per minute but absorbs significantly fewer at 2.75.

Topuria should have the grappling edge, averaging 1.38 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and has a 92 percent takedown defense rate to Emmett’s 58 percent. The Fighting Falmer has a wrestling background but rarely attempts takedowns. El Matador also averages 2.45 submissions per 15 minutes to Emmett’s 0.1.

The statistics favor the younger Topuria, and he’s a finisher. The lower weight classes are the most difficult for an aging fighter, so this seems like a transition bout for both. It’s tough to take Topuria at -355 to win outright, but -260 for a KO/TKO or submission finish is more palatable.