NFL Odds: Time To Pump Brakes On Talented, Unproven Dolphins

Tune in to the “Ultimate Betting Show” on NESN on Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET for daily training camp previews: Next up: the Miami Dolphins.

There is plenty of optimism surrounding the Dolphins entering the 2023-24 campaign, with the hope being that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy long enough to lead Miami to its first playoff win in nearly a quarter century.

The Dolphins have a ton of talent, with wide receiver Tyreek Hill and head coach Mike McDaniel leading an offense that ranked 11th in a season that its starting QB missed the better part of six games. The defense added Jalen Ramsey, who is considered one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, and will have Vic Fangio running things in the hope that it can stay out of the shootouts Miami became known for last season.

In an offseason in which the Dolphins made stark improvements, however, the rest of the AFC East did as well. The New York Jets are now a contender, if not for the sole reason that Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback now. The New England Patriots, who finished just behind Miami last year, made the most drastic improvement in replacing Matt Patricia with Bill O’Brien. The Buffalo Bills, well, they’re still the Bills and will have the benefit of the doubt until someone can knock them off their perch.

The Dolphins are damn talented, but it might be too soon for us to consider them a real contender in the AFC.

2022 in review
9-8, second in AFC East (lost in wild-card round)
10-8 against the spread
9-9 over/under

Key offseason additions
CB Jalen Ramsey
LB David Long Jr.
OT Isaiah Wynn
P Jake Bailey
DC Vic Fangio

Key offseason losses
TE Mike Gesicki
LB Elandon Roberts
LB Melvin Ingram

Look ahead to 2023 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Super Bowl: +2500
Conference: +1200
Division: +290
Win total: over/under 9.5 (Over -110)
To make playoffs: Yes -105| No -115

2023 award contenders
MVP: Tua Tagovailoa +1600
Offensive POY: Tyreek Hill +2000
Defensive POY: Jaelan Phillips +5000
Coach of the Year: Mike McDaniel +2000
Comeback Player of Year: Tua Tagovailoa +2000

2023 outlook
There are still three big dogs in the AFC. Josh Allen’s Bills, Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs and Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately for Miami, no matter what Hill says about Tagovailoa, they just aren’t in the same stratosphere.

The Dolphins were electrifying last season, but Tagovailoa’s inability to stay healthy and the potential long-term effect of his injuries cast a gigantic shadow over their prospects in 2023. There’s a world in which Miami wins 4-of-6 divisional matchups and takes advantage of its matchups at the Washington Commanders and against the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, but the rest of that schedule is tough sledding. There isn’t a team in the NFL who would be comfortable going on the road to play the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens — which is the reality for Miami, who also plays the scrappy Los Angeles Chargers on the road while hosting the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys.

The expectations are high in Miami — too high.