Lions Super Bowl Bettors Can’t Actually Believe It Will Happen, Right?

Is it really that strange to think it’s hogwash to suggest the Lions — the Detroit Lions — should be taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders?

For just about all of eternity, the answer would be a resounding no. The Lions are as old as dirt, at least in terms of professional football teams, yet they’ve never even sniffed a Super Bowl. Yet, here we are, as we get set to enter the 2023 season, and there’s legitimate momentum for Dan Campbell’s team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

What are we doing here?

Bettors are falling all over themselves to make Lions wagers. BetMGM on Tuesday revealed it had cut Detroit’s odds to win it all from 25-1 to 22-1 after taking action on Campbell’s team. In fact, the sportsbook says the Lions are now its biggest liability to win Super Bowl LVIII.

It doesn’t end there, either. No team in the entire NFL has been bet more to win its own division than the Lions, who are currently +130 to win the NFC North. With 46.6% of the bets and 63.7% of the handle in the North, the Lions are by far BetMGM’s biggest liability within the division.

And if you’re looking for reasons to be bullish on the Lions, the division is seemingly the place to start. Detroit missed the playoffs last season, but it was the only team of the four to have a plus-point differential. The Lions’ 5-1 record against the North also led the group. They’re also undeniably trending up while the rest of the division is either on a downward trend — like Green Bay and to a lesser extent Minnesota — or just not there yet like Chicago.

It also helps that the NFC in general just isn’t very good. Only three teams in the conference have shorter odds to reach the Super Bowl, and it’s pretty evident the Lions are better than the entire NFC South. That should limit the competition once the playoffs roll around.

Yet, this is far from a flawless team. Detroit’s offense should be explosive once again after finishing fifth in offensive DVOA last season. When you take arguably the NFL’s top offensive line and a coordinator, Ben Johnson, who might be one of the most innovative at his position, you’re going to score some points.

However, there are question marks there. Those start with quarterback Jared Goff, who did have the best season of his career under Johnson. Was that lightning in a bottle, though?

Goff’s two worst games of 2022 came in a three-week span against New England and Dallas, two elite defenses. Like most quarterbacks, he struggled under pressure, but a nearly 60-point drop in passer rating under pressure sure stands out. This season, Detroit has 10 games on its schedule against teams with top-25 pass-rushers (per Pro Football Focus), including games against the Los Angeles Chargers and the Cowboys, teams with two elite rushers. The schedule in general is tougher than the last-place slate the Lions have seen in recent years, with road games in Kansas City, Baltimore, Dallas, New Orleans and at the Chargers this year.

Then there’s the defense, a unit that ranked 28th last season by DVOA. With a chance to draft a game-changing defensive talent in the draft, the Lions opted against someone like Tyree Wilson or Jalen Carter and moved down from No. 6 — to draft running back Jahmyr Gibbs, one pick ahead of pass rusher Lukas Van Ness. Then, Detroit saw cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes and Christian Gonzalez come off the board right before they grabbed linebacker Jack Campbell, largely projected as a second-round talent, with the No. 18 pick. They’re stout up front, but time will tell whether the Lions made the necessary upgrades in a leaky secondary. That group will get put to the test early on opening night against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

The Lions deserve credit for what they’re building, and perhaps the Super Bowl love stems more from a good number than it does an actual belief they could hoist the Lombardi. Yet, it still feels a little too early for this team to peak, and it’s still hard to see them going into Philadelphia or San Francisco or even Dallas to win a playoff game that gets them to the sport’s biggest stage.

One phrase that does still stick for the Lions? Maybe next year.