Northwestern Wildcats Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

Where to begin? One of the most surprising stories in college football over the offseason was the firing of Pat Fitzgerald over a hazing scandal. You have to wonder if the powers that be levied an actual suspension on Coach Fitz off the bat (six games to an entire season) if they could have kept the face of Northwestern. But that’s neither here nor there, and the program was trending in the wrong direction on the field. After winning the B1G West in 2020, the Wildcats won three and one game over the past two seasons for a 4-20 record, 2-16 in Big Ten play. Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse, it did.Northwestern Wildcats Preview

2022 Record: 1-11 (1-8); Big Ten Finish: 7th in B1G West

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 85

Head Coach: David Braun: 0-0 (0-0) | 1st Season | Overall: 0-0

Offensive Coordinator: Mike Bajakian (4th Season)

Defensive Coordinator: David Braun (1st Season)

National Championship Odds: +100000 | CFB Playoff Odds: NA

B1G Championship Odds: +42000 | B1G West Odds: +11000

Win 6+ Games: +850 | Undefeated Regular Season: +50000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 2.5 -144 | UNDER 2.5 +118

Big Ten West Previews: Illinois | Iowa | Minnesota | Nebraska | Purdue | Wisconsin 

Big Ten East Previews: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State | Rutgers

National Previews: Georgia | Notre Dame | USC

The overall talent is better and should be much improved at quarterback. Over the past five seasons, Northwestern had three of three wins or less and finished in the Big Ten West basement. They won the division in the other two campaigns and made the B1G Championship Game. What is the most significant difference in those seasons? Quarterback competency.

In 2019, Northwestern QBs completed 50% of passes for 4.5 YPA with six TD passes to 15 INTs. In 2021, the numbers were 57.1%-5.8 YPA-13 TDs-14 INTs and 58.8%-6.1 YPA-10 TDs-17 INTs last season. In 2018, Clayton Thorson put up 61.1%-6.5 YPA-17 TDs-15 INTs, and Peyton Ramsey posted 61.0%-6.1 YPA-12 TDs-8 INTs in 2020. Not elite, but competent, which is what incoming Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant (61.2%-7.9 YPA-21 TDs-7 INTs) is. The QB’s play was so foul over the past two seasons that the offense never had a chance. Bryant gives them a chance. Defensively, the back seven led by safety Coco Azema and linebacker Bryce Gallagher could approach average production.

The talent is better. I didn’t say good. The offense averaged 13.8 PPG, the worst among Power 5 teams in 2022. Only one receiver (the top three from 2022 are gone) in the two-deep has cracked the 20-catch plateau in a single season, and the offensive line must replace four starters, including first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

The defense wasn’t much better, as the Wildcats finished 81st in scoring defense and 110th against the run. It’s hard to imagine they were a Pat Fitzgerald-led team. The defensive line loses three starters, including defensive end Adetomiwa Adebawore, a fourth-round pick. Defensive tackle was so thin in the spring that they had just two scholarship players, making depth a significant concern.

The ‘Cats lost four players in the 2023 NFL Draft (RB Evan Hull and CB Cameron Mitchell were fifth-round picks) and seven over the past two seasons. Not a small number, considering their lack of success.

While they lack depth at the position, I like the upside of defensive tackle Najee Story. He came to Northwestern as a 235-pound defensive end, and two years later, he’s grown into a 285-pound interior lineman with All-Big Ten potential. As a true sophomore (Story played in one game in 2021), the Ohio native played all 12 games, including three starts. His 25 tackles were a solid number for a first-year player at a new position in a reserve role. Story has maintained his explosiveness while getting bigger, making him a dangerous penetrating force from the three-technique position, with upside as a pass rusher.

As head coach, David Braun was a first-year defensive coordinator at Northwestern before his promotion and didn’t arrive in Evanston until 2023. The Wildcats have five new assistants, all in the Power 5 level for the first time. Braun had come over from North Dakota State, D-line coach Christian Smith from South Dakota State, and wide receivers coach Armon Binns from Youngstown State, FCS programs.

This isn’t to hate on the FCS. If you can coach, you can coach. See Chris Klieman at Kansas State and Lance Leipold at Kansas. So maybe Braun can coach. I’m open to that possibility. I was confident he would build a better defense after the debacle of Jim O’Neil’s tenure. I’d be more optimistic about Braun as headman if this weren’t his first gig. Klieman and Leipold were proven FCS winners as the HC.

On a positive note, it appears the players wanted him to be the head coach and like him, which is not insignificant considering Fitz’s popularity and stature. Yes, they’ve lost some players to the portal, but not as many as expected. With the coaching unknowns, the Wildcats could be college football’s biggest disaster or surprise.

The Wildcats open the season with a conference game at Rutgers, with Penn State and Maryland (both at home) rounding out their Big Ten East opponents. I’d rather play Rutgers at home, but with a 6.5-point spread, it’s a winnable opener. Out of conference, they play UTEP, Duke (road), and Howard. Howard is a must-win, and UTEP should win if they want to avoid another 1-11 season. In Big Ten West play, the Wildcats host Minnesota, Iowa (in Chicago), and Purdue, with trips to Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Illinois scheduled.

A vintage Northwestern team plays really hard, really smart, and with much pride. With a -19 in turnovers (worst nationally) in 2022, they played the opposite of what we expect from the Wildcats, and they produced a college football-high 24.4 yards per point, making them the least efficient offense last season in terms of scoring, as left many points on the field.

There were also close losses. Down eight, they fumbled going into the goal line with 12 seconds left against Duke. They lost by a TD to Southern Illinois, by a FG to Miami (OH), held Penn State to 17 points, held Ohio State to 21 points (game tied at halftime), were tied at Maryland with 3:34 left, and held B1G West champ Purdue to 17 points. They will be in some close and ugly games—Bank on it.

Call me crazy, but I believe they’ll play with a chip on their shoulder, make fewer mistakes, and steal a game or two when underestimated. Give me the over at 2.5 (at three, it’s a pass).

OVER 2.5 (-144)