Rutgers Scarlet Knights Preview, Predictions & Win Total Pick

In his second turn as headman in his home state, Greg Schiano is 12-22 through three seasons, including 6-20 in the conference. Before you overreact and question whether or not he’s the right man for the job, know these two things: Rutgers was 9-39 in the previous four seasons, and Schiano was 8-27 in his first three seasons leading the Scarlet Knights from 2001-03 back in the Big East before he turned things around.Rutgers Scarlet Knights Preview

2022 Record: 4-8 (1-8); Big Ten Finish: 7th in B1G East

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 73

Head Coach: Greg Schiano: 80-89 (6-20) | 16th Season | Overall: 80-89

Offensive Coordinator: Kirk Ciarrocca (1st Season)

Defensive Coordinator: Joe Harasymiak (2nd Season)

National Championship Odds: +50000 | CFB Playoff Odds: NA

B1G Championship Odds: +20000 | B1G East Odds: +14000

Win 6+ Games: +250 | Undefeated Regular Season: +50000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 3.5 -188 | UNDER 3.5 +152

Big Ten Previews: Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State |

The Scarlet Knights might have a legit defense, especially against the pass. They have a troika of edge rushers with potential led by Aaron Lewis, their best player. The former Michigan man led their D-line last season with 55 tackles and the team nine TFLs. His pressure rate of 11% should yield more sacks in 2023. Fellow junior Wesley Bailey (team-high 3.5 sacks in 2022) also brings speed off the edge. Throw in the return of the uber-athletic Mohamed Toure (who missed last season with torn ACL), and the defense has three players who can get after the quarterback, which should help a strong quartet of cornerbacks. Max Melton could challenge Lewis as RU’s top talent, and the speedy Robert Longerbeam return as starters. Adding depth are transfers Eric Rogers and Charles Amankwaa, who excelled in the MAC.

The offense is terrible. Really bad. Quarterback Gavin Wimsatt could be the worst in the Big Ten. He completed 44.8% of his passes last season for 757 yards and five TD passes to seven INTs, averaging 5.2 yards per pass. Gone is Noah Vedral, who led them to five wins in 2021, and Evan Simon wasn’t much better: 57.7 completion percentage, 777 yards, four TDs, six INTs, and 5.7 YPA. The addition of OC Kirk Ciarrocca is a welcomed one, but unless they hire Criss Angel or David Blaine to be the QB coach, I’m not sure how much better the passing game will be. Do we even mention that they lost their three most productive wide receivers in 2022?

Yes, he plays behind arguably their best-skill player, Johnny Langan, who is more of an H-back type. At 6’7” and 250 pounds, Victor Konopka is a legit tight end with a whopping catch radius. He was once slated to play college hoops (at Army), so you know the athleticism complements the size. While I’m not expecting big things from the throw game in Piscataway, Ciarrocca knows a tight end can be a quarterback’s best friend, so look for RU to feature the position to make things easier on their young QB. Despite just five career receptions, NFL scouts know who Konopka is.

The most popular player on Rutgers last season might have been punter Adam Korsak (seriously), who won the Ray Guy Award. He excelled at directional punts and forcing fair catches. Another Aussie’ll replace him in Flynn Appleby, but it’s hard not to imagine they don’t take a step back which is huge considering how often they punt. Kicker Jude McAtamney had six misses (12-of-18) last season, including one in a one-point loss to Nebraska. He’s been beat out by Jai Patel, who has not seen game action. A staple of Schiano’s program is elite special teams. They were blocking kicks and scoring touchdowns. If this team is to exceed expectations in 2023, Schiano will need to rediscover that formula.

They have a chance to win all three out-of-conference games, all at home, against Temple, Virginia Tech, and Wagner (combined seven wins last season). Va. Tech and Temple have season win totals of 5.5, far from automatic W’s. Playing in the B1G East is brutal for the bottom of the division, with automatic losses vs. Michigan, OSU, and PSU. Throw in Wisconsin and Iowa from the West, and Rutgers plays the top six B1G teams by season win totals (Maryland at 7.5 is sixth). At least they get Northwestern at home from the West, with Michigan State coming to New Jersey and a trip to Indiana, which is winnable.

They have six definite losses with one sure win. That leaves five games, including Northwestern, with RU only a 6.5-point favorite in Week 1. Do I expect them to win four of five? Not with their putrid offense, which finished 122nd in EPA and success rate a year ago. Why should we expect them to be much better this season? They won four games last season, and the schedule isn’t any easier in 2023. At 3.5, I’d lean towards the OVER, but with the option of 4.5 at a fair price, I like the UNDER. The margin is too slim for RU to win five games, even if they improve as a team.

UNDER 4.5 (-120 @ BetMGM Best Price)