AFC East Shift: Bills' Defense Vs. Dolphins' Offensive
In what’s shaping up to be a memorable NFL showdown, the Buffalo Bills are gearing up for an offense far different from any they’ve encountered this season. To date, their adversaries have held largely underwhelming credentials: teams languishing in the bottom five ranks for passing, rushing, or, in the sad situation of the New York Jets, both. Not to mention, each of these teams also falls within the bottom ten regarding red zone efficiency.
However, the waters get decidedly choppier this week. Enter the Miami Dolphins: a team with an impressive No. 1 rank in overall efficiency, be it passing, rushing, or total offense. Their prowess doesn’t diminish once they sniff the end zone, holding a solid No. 2 spot in red zone efficiency.
The pressing question for many is: How will the Bills approach Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ star quarterback? Especially when it comes to exerting pressure on the passing game, which has proven resilient and deadly effective. The challenge for the Bills lies in their statistics. They hold the undesirable distinction of being the team least likely to blitz in the entire NFL. And when they do summon the courage? Their pressure rate languishes at the bottom of the league.
Yet, hope isn’t lost. The Bills’ down linemen have been their saving grace, generating natural pressure without blitzes. This no-blitz approach, however, seemed to be Tagovailoa’s bread and butter last season. A glance at last year’s stats reveals that Tua feasted on the Bills’ reluctance to blitz, racking up 9.5 yards per attempt. This year, the numbers paint an even more daunting picture: when teams choose not to blitz him, he ranks No. 1 in EPA per attempt, No. 1 in success rate, No. 3 in air yards per attempt, No. 1 in yards per attempt at a staggering 10.9, and No. 2 in pressure rate allowed at a mere 18%.
So, the million-dollar question: Will the Bills break away from their traditional non-blitzing strategy? If they decide to switch gears and blitz, can they muster more pressure than they have historically?
This game promises more than just exciting football; it’s a strategic face-off. While the Bills have yet to challenge an offense as formidable as the Dolphins this season, it’s worth noting that they haven’t squared off against a defense as stingy as the Bills. This match-up isn’t just about the game on the day; it’s pivotal for the future landscape of the AFC East.
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