Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: Pats Deserve Respect at Home

In the unpredictable world of NFL betting, few things are as confounding as this week’s line for the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins showdown. The line, in many ways, encapsulates the essence of this game. A casual glance at last week’s performances would make anyone hesitate before backing the Patriots. After an impressive outing against the Chargers, the Dolphins have emerged as the favorites, albeit by a thin margin of -2-points. But is the choice that straightforward?

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Historically, clashes between the Dolphins and Patriots have been tight, edge-of-the-seat affairs. Given their recent form, one might argue that the Dolphins should be the clear favorites. But here’s the twist: the unusually close line makes a lean toward the Patriots, and here’s why.

Yes, the general consensus may be leaning towards Miami, especially after their dazzling performance last Sunday. But the subtle hint in this line suggests that the Patriots, especially their defense, might have something up their sleeve.

The Patriots showcased a commendable offensive display last week against a formidable Eagles defense. While many might argue that the Eagles grew complacent after their initial lead, we attribute this shift to the strategic genius of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. With Mac Jones looking more settled and confident, it’s clear the Patriots are reaping the benefits of having an offensive coordinator who genuinely understands the game—a stark contrast to the times of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge.

While undeniably talented, the Dolphins showed vulnerabilities in their secondary against the Chargers. And if there’s one thing the Patriots and Bill Belichick are adept at, it’s exploiting such weaknesses. Speaking of Belichick, there’s another intriguing subplot to this match-up. Belichick hasn’t managed a win against Tua Tagovailoa in his illustrious career, standing at 0-4. If motivation was needed, there’s no better fuel than this glaring statistic.

Now, we’re not outright declaring a Patriots victory. But having them as home underdogs, especially after Miami’s emotionally charged win, feels like an opportunity too good to pass up. Under Belichick’s astute guidance, the Patriots have a knack for proving doubters wrong.

So, while this might seem like a risky proposition to many, the play is on the Patriots. This game has all the hallmarks of an NFL classic, and it wouldn’t be surprising if New England throws in a wrench. Sometimes, it’s the odd lines that offer the most insight.

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