Week 4 is already here; who would’ve thought? Our ultimate same-game parlay for the Monday Night Football doubleheader disappointed, but we’re still profiting on the year, so we live to fight another day. Tonight, we look at what should be a great NFC North matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, and like always, we have you covered with a parlay.
Tonight, it’s valued at roughly +700, but with the available bonuses, you can get this upwards of +1100 on some sites.
Let’s ride.
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Leg 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown 60+ Receiving YardsThrough three games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been absolutely lighting it up. He’s averaged seven receptions, north of nine targets per game, and has averaged over 90 yards per game, exceeding our threshold of 60 comfortably in each outing. Green Bay does have a respectable pass defense, but after seeing Chris Olave tear this secondary up for 108 yards last week, I don’t know why Amon-Ra can’t do the same.
Sam LaPorta has become a trendy pick, but it’s wholly deserved. He’s averaged 62 yards per game through three games, exceeding 40+ in two of the three games, with the one he missed being a 39-yard outing. We won’t sweat that one too much. Last week in particular, he burst on the scene when he garnered eleven targets, turning it into 84 yards and a touchdown. His role should only increase.
We considered pivoting to taking the over on his reception total at 4.5 for added value, but given that he’s averaged over 10 yards per reception, we want to play it safe with the 40+ yards. Nonetheless, we’d still target his reception prop individually.
Sticking with the rookie tight end on the other sideline, we’re all over Luke Musgrave having a big game. He’s gone over 40 yards in two of three games this year, but we’re looking to his Week 3 volume for promise tonight as he saw eight targets. Jordan Love did throw 44 passes in Week 3, 17 more than he threw in either of the first two weeks, but tonight Musgrave faces a Lions’ defense that’s defended opposing tight ends at the worst rate in the NFL. The tight end position has averaged 12 targets per game against the Lions, totaling 263 yards, which is the most by a gap of 74 yards! In what could become a high-scoring affair, if Love throws 30-35 passes, we’ll see Musgrave get enough volume to meet his 40-yard obligation.
Sticking with the Packers’ passing game, rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed has developed a strong rapport with Jordan Love. Over the past two weeks, Reed’s combined for seven receptions, but he’s been targetted a total of 15 times, enough volume for him to see some a spike in the reception department. With us only needing three catches, we like his chances against a Lions’ secondary that doesn’t have much talent.
All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
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