UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot Preview & Best Bets

A top-10 lightweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 228 as No. 6 ranked Rafael Fiziev takes on No. 7 Mateusz Gamrot.

• Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023 | Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Paradise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+

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Coming off back-to-back losses, Marina Rodriguez looks to bounce back against Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson-Gomez. Rodriguez has lost her previous two bouts, being beaten by Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba. Meanwhile, Waterson-Gomez has only one win over her last six fights. These two fought each other in 2021, with Rodriguez winning a unanimous decision. 

Rodriguez is three inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Waterson-Gomez has no power on the feet, averaging zero knockdowns over 15 minutes. Rodriguez lands 0.95 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.07 fewer. Waterson-Gomez averages a few more takedowns per 15 minutes, but the size advantage will not help her.

At -340, Rodriguez is a significant favorite, and her winning feels like a done deal. However, taking Rodriguez to win by decision at -155 is a little more palatable.

No. 10 ranked featherweight Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell faces No. 12 Dan “50K” Ige. Mitchell is coming off a loss to Ilia Topuria after putting together a 15-fight win streak. Ige has won two in a row but had a three-fight losing streak before that.

Mitchell is three inches taller, but Ige will have a one-inch reach advantage. Ige will also have the power advantage, averaging 0.29 more knockdowns per 15 minutes. 50K lands 1.48 more significant strikes per minute. However, Mitchell absorbs 1.98 fewer per minute. Thug Nasty will have the grappling advantage, averaging 2.11 more takedowns and 1.4 more submissions per 15 minutes.

Taking Mitchell to win by decision seems to be the smart play at -105, but taking him to win by submission at +600 is very tempting.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot

• Odds to Win: Fiziev -166 | Gamrot +130
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +140 | Submission +550 | Decision -115
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -108 | No -118

In a bout that features two fighters looking to put themselves in a contender spot, Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev faces Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot. Fiziev is coming off a majority decision loss to Justin Gaethje but won his previous six before that. Gamrot won his previous fight against Jalin Turner but lost two fights ago to Beneil Dariush.

Gamrot is two inches taller but will give up an inch in reach to Fiziev. Fiziev has more power than Gamrot, but it’s not an overwhelming advantage. Ataman lands 2.03 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.94 more. Gamrot has the grappling edge, averaging 4.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, but both men have 90 takedown defense rates.

This is a tough fight to call, but with Fiziev’s being the better striker and possessing solid takedown defense, I’ll lean toward him. Take Fiziev to win outright at -166.

• Rodriguez to win by decision (-155)
• Mitchell to win by decision (-105)
• Fiziev to win (-166)

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