Breaking Down and Predicting Every MLB Wild Card Round

The MLB Postseason is here, with the Wild Card round beginning Tuesday with four consecutive games. In a best-of-three series, here are our picks for who will advance from each matchup.

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• No. 5 Texas Rangers @ No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays

The Texas Rangers were in control of the AL West for the better part of the first half of the MLB season. Then, they made some pretty sizeable trade deadline acquisitions to bolster their playoff chances by adding Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to their starting rotation. Scherzer is sidelined for now, but Texas still has rotation depth led by Nathan Eovaldi that few other teams share, alongside a lineup that’s nine deep at the plate and has generated the most runs in the American League.

The Tampa Bay Rays had the best start of an MLB team in recent memory. Beginning the season 30-9, they were once thought to be unbeatable, but after plateauing from late May to July, they found their groove in the final two months, where they went 34-19 since August 1. A dominant force as a 99-win wild card team, their starting rotation has come together despite injuries the unit has faced all season with a stellar bullpen backing them up, as we’ve come accustomed to with Rays’ baseball.

Offensively, these two lineups have enough pieces to hang with each other as they both ranked first and second in the American League in runs scored, so given the Rays’ apparent advantage in the bullpen, I’ll trust Kevin Cash to more right buttons in what should be an excellent back and forth series.

Pick: Rays in 3

• No. 6 Toronto Blue Jays @ No. 3 Minnesota Twins

This series is criminally even, as seen by these two teams sharing the closest odds of any Wild Card matchup, and will be better than many anticipate. Looking at the starters, the Minnesota Twins have one of the most underrated staffs in baseball and a dynamite one-two punch of Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. Their rotation is rounded out by reliable arms in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, giving Minnesota enough depth to withstand the grueling three-game do-or-die set.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, the Toronto Blue Jays have had the best starting rotation ERA in the AL, canceling out the Twins’ biggest strength. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi give the Jays plenty of options and invaluable depth. However, for both teams, their offenses haven’t been outstanding. At least for the Twins, no one expected them to be good, but the Blue Jays were supposed to mash all year and haven’t. 

The biggest storyline in this one is that the Minnesota Twins have been swept in every postseason appearance since 2004 and are unworthy of a postseason spot after being the best team in an ugly AL Central. This time, they have elite arms to compete, and went 18-9 in September, giving them the best record in the AL for the month. I’d be shocked if this series doesn’t go to three games, but I’ll give the Twins the slight advantage as they’re coming in with momentum.

Pick: Twins in 3

• No. 6. Arizona Diamondbacks @ No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers

The Arizona Diamondbacks were cruising in the first half of the season but hit rock bottom when they had a 7-24 stretch throughout July. Rebounding in August, the Diamondbacks still had to fight for a playoff spot down to the wire in a crowded NL field but found themselves in an ideal matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Nothing else matters for the D-Backs if they can’t get through Game 1, as their elite one-two punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly cannot go until Games 2 and 3.

Milwaukee has stuck to its formula by having a great starting rotation and an elite bullpen while having an offense that leaves plenty to be desired. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta give the Brewers a deep three-man rotation. Still, their bullpen is the difference maker, led by closer Devin Williams, who has only allowed ten earned runs all season. 

In my eyes, I don’t even think offense matters as neither team has swung the bat well all season, but if one team comes alive, it would be due to a pitcher not being as dominant as they’re supposed to be. Still, I imagine this series coming down to the Diamondbacks’ presumed Game 1 starter Brandon Pfaadt. If he can somehow come in and secure a win, Gallen and Kelly could pull off an upset. However, I don’t see how he out-duels Burnes in Game 1.

Pick: Brewers in 2

• No. 5 Miami Marlins @ No. 4. Philadelphia Phillies

How about the Miami Marlins? No one expected them to make the postseason, but after the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds collapsed down the stretch, the Marlins had a window to make the playoffs and took it. Offensively, looking past Luis Arraez’s .354 batting average, they’ve lacked run producers in the biggest of ways, as they have a -56 run differential on the season. On the mound, their bullpen is a liability, but their starters are pretty solid, even considering that Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are unavailable due to injury. 

The Philadelphia Phillies are built for the postseason. After their miracle run last October, they’ve been building towards the playoffs all season and won’t back down from this moment. Offensively, they are loaded from top to bottom, led by Bryce Harper and a resurgent Trea Turner. Their one-two punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola hasn’t been as elite as we saw in 2022, but they are well-rested and know how to win in the postseason.

This isn’t the ideal matchup for the Phillies, as the Marlins went 5-1 this season when their three projected starters, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Edward Cabrera, pitched against them. Still, the talent gap between these two clubs is too large. Behind the Philly crowd that uplifted the team to becoming National League champions season, the Marlins simply aren’t going to walk in and take this series away.

Pick: Phillies in 2

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