Here’s How You Can Use the Weather for Your TNF Bets

If you haven’t already heard, we may be getting the Wind Bowl on Thursday Night Football as the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs will clash at Arrowhead Stadium with sustained winds expected to be over 20 miles per hour and gusts north of 30 MPH, per WillyWeather.com. We dissect a few different ways you can attack the prop markets in order to take advantage of this unique situation that the market may not be fully accounted for. Let’s dive in:

QB Passing Yards Unders Paired with RB Receiving Overs

If you want to put together a profitable same-game parlay, you have to tell yourself a story as to how this can come true. The best way to find value in these is to find where the sportsbook may place some improper correlation on combined wagers. One example can be taking the under on a quarterback’s passing yards combined with the over on a running back’s receiving yards. Because, on the surface, those are negatively correlated bets, you’re already getting favorable odds on this wager.

Now, you can add the weather as an additional factor here, with the high-level winds and even the potential for some storms that may impact both play-calling and quarterback decision-making. It may feel risky to throw the ball downfield with so many weather variables at play so that check-downs could become more prevalent. The more factors you can stack up that the sportsbook may not be accounted for, the better off your bet may be in terms of long-run expected value. An example of this type of bet may be:

Same-Game Parlay (+265)
Russell Wilson u217.5 passing yards (-110)
Javonte Williams o11.5 receiving yards (-110)

Kicking Prop Unders

This one is a bit more obvious, but because it’s such an untapped market, you may still be able to find value. If we will be seeing winds sustained at over 20 miles per hour for a majority of the game, there’s going to be some serious value in fading the kickers in this matchup. Whether it’s on total points from each kicker, longest field goal made, or total field goals made, any of these markets can be exploitable. Rooting for fewer points isn’t always the most fun way to watch the game, but you’re going to be making a profitable bet more times than not with this strategy.

Back Players with Low aDOTs

aDOT sounds fancy, but it’s a simple concept. It’s the average depth of target for a receiver based on their targets over the course of the season. While some players have incredibly high aDOTs since they are the vertical threat on their respective teams, gadget guys and running backs often see lower aDOTs within their offense. A great example of a lower aDOT player for tonight’s game is Kadarius Toney, a gadget guy who the Chiefs love to get the ball near the line of scrimmage and allow him to make defenders miss. Among pass-catchers with at least ten targets participating in tonight’s game, Toney easily has the lowest aDOT among players on both teams at 2.53. Expect Mahomes to be looking his way plenty of times near the line of scrimmage as a safe outlet with howling winds.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.