NBA Season Preview: Southwest Division Win Total Predictions

The Southwest Division should be one of the more exciting battles in the league as any of the Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, and New Orleans Pelicans could win it, while the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are amidst exciting rebuilds.

Here are our win total predictions for each team in the division. 

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• Dallas Mavericks

The collapse of the Dallas Mavericks was one of the craziest things to happen last year, but I refuse to believe they’ll be equally as bad this season. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will provide no shortage of offense, but I’m a fan of the pieces they added this offseason to bolster the surrounding roster. Grant Williams knows how to win regular season games and will be a glue piece for the frontcourt, Seth Curry will be an added shooter off the bench, and rookies Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are defensive-minded guys who will have roles immediately to start the season. People are dismissing the Mavs completely, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them fighting for one of the middle playoff seeds with a win total in the high 40s come April.

Pick: Over 43.5 Wins

• Houston Rockets

I’m not a fan of the Houston Rockets expediting their rebuild by bringing in Fred VanVleet to take charge of the offense since I believe it will stunt the growth of Jalen Green and Amen Thompson. Green came along last spring as he took on more facilitation duties, and Thompson was drafted fourth overall as a point guard. Regardless, his presence and Ime Udoka will help, so I think 31.5 wins is far too low. 

Pick: Over 31.5 Wins

• Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant for the first 25 games of the season, so are we confident Marcus Smart can lead a team offensively with lofty expectations in a tough Western Conference? As talented as Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are, they aren’t Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Plus, Steven Adams will be out for the season, an integral veteran leader, and I’m not buying Xavier Tillman filling in seamlessly. Even though Memphis has won 51 and 56 games each of the past two seasons, I’m expecting a step back this season as the competition around them is stronger, too. 

Pick: Under 46.5 Wins 

• New Orleans Pelicans

How do we judge the New Orleans Pelicans without knowing how many games Zion Williamson will miss? If a crystal ball told us Zion would play 65 games, the public would back the over since Zion is that special. Without him, they are mediocre at best. Zion missed 53 games last season, and the Pelicans still won 42 games with a core led by CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. I think the injury bug will break Zion’s way, and if that’s the case, his presence is worth an additional three wins at least.

Pick: Over 44.5 Wins

• San Antonio Spurs

Not to beat the Victor Wembanyama drum any more than it already has been, but he will be unbelievable from the jump and make such a difference for this Spurs team that only won 22 games last season. Around him, I think the roster can develop better than many think. Keldon Johnson is one of the more underrated players in basketball. Devin Vassell just inked a $146 million extension, and I’m fascinated to see why Gregg Popovich is making Jeremy Sochan his starting point guard. Back the over and enjoy the show.

Pick: Over 28.5 Wins

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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