NFL Week 7 Picks: Two Potential Super Bowl Previews Top Light Slate

It’s time to make our NFL Week 7 picks, and it’s a week of light lifting for NESN.com’s pigskin pickers, Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle.

Six teams are on bye this week, tied with Week 13 for the most on the NFL schedule this season. Here’s hoping you have your fantasy team in order heading into this week.

Despite only 13 games on the slate, there are a couple of must-see matchups, and dare we say potential Super Bowl previews.

The first comes Sunday afternoon in Baltimore where the 4-2 Ravens host the 5-1 Lions. Lamar Jackson and company have built that strong record despite not playing their best football, so the Ravens could be a sneaky darkhorse team once the playoffs roll around, if they peak at the right time. Detroit, meanwhile, continues to make its case as a legitimate championship contender and a road win in the Charm City would certainly help.

The game of the week, no doubt, comes Sunday night when the Dolphins head to Philadelphia to take on the defending NFC champions. The Eagles still don’t look completely right — perhaps they’re pacing themselves — but keeping the high-octane Fins in check would be a major statement. That’s been easier said than done for opposing defenses this season, though.

On this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, Mike and Ricky covered that game as part of their Week 7 best bets. Check it out below.

Before revealing all of their Week 7 picks, here’s how they fared last week.

THURSDAY, OCT. 19

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-1) New Orleans Saints, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Saints.
Ricky: Saints.

It sure sounds like Trevor Lawrence is going to play, but as of Thursday morning, there wasn’t anything definitive … which seems strange. At the very least, Lawrence will probably be hampered by that sprained knee. It’s damn near impossible to run on the Saints, which means it’s either a compromised Lawrence or CJ Beathard trying to do the bulk of the offensive work on their own. Give me the home team in a low-scoring Thursday night game that’s basically a pick ’em. –MC

SUNDAY, OCT. 22

Detroit Lions at (-3) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Lions.

Baltimore’s defense ranks No. 2 in DVOA, trailing only Cleveland. You know who ranks No. 3? Detroit. For as good as the Lions’ offense has been this season (No. 4 in offensive DVOA), their dramatic turnaround on the other side of the ball arguably has been even more impressive. These teams currently fall into the second tier of the AFC and NFC, meaning Week 7 could be telling as it relates to each’s season-long prospects. –RD

(-3) Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Bears.

If Justin Fields and Jimmy Garoppolo were playing, this game would still suck. Sure looks like neither will be able to suit up Sunday, though, which makes this a tough watch. Tough to handicap, too. Let’s just take the points and bank on a letdown from Vegas after a pair of emotional wins the last two weeks. –MC

(-2.5) Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns.
Ricky: Colts.

Cleveland’s defense might be the NFL’s best, in which case it’s unsettling to back Gardner Minshew coming off a four-turnover performance against Jacksonville. But this feels like a classic letdown spot for the Browns after last week’s upset win over the 49ers, especially if Deshaun Watson remains sidelined and Cleveland again leans on former XFL QB PJ Walker. –RD

(-8.5) Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Bills.

Going just off DVOA, this is the most lopsided matchup of the entire week. Buffalo has beaten the brakes off Bill Belichick’s team recently, winning six of the last seven, with those victories coming by an average margin of 17 points. Only two teams have scored more off turnovers than Buffalo, who forces turnovers at a higher rate (20.3% of drives) than anyone else, and here comes a Patriots team that ranks last in turnover differential. –MC

(-2.5) Washington Commanders at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Commanders.
Ricky: Giants.

The Giants are terrible. But it’s also hard to justify laying points on the road with Washington, a team with zero offensive-line protection that’s been torched defensively on multiple occasions this season. Direct your brainpower elsewhere this Sunday. –RD

Atlanta Falcons at (-2.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs.
Ricky: Falcons.

Desmond Ridder is so bad, man. The Falcons had a legitimate chance to win that game last week against Washington. Atlanta doubled up on Washington’s yardage while possessing the ball for almost an entire quarter more than DC. But Ridder literally threw it away — multiple times. Tampa Bay has handled subpar offenses this season, a category in which the Falcons belong despite their skill-position talent. Tampa Bay does just enough to cover the short number. –MC

Pittsburgh Steelers at (-3) Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Steelers.
Ricky: Rams.

Pittsburgh’s offense stinks and its defense is overrated outside of a few splash plays against sloppy opponents. The Rams, meanwhile, still feel a bit underrated, ranking 12th in total DVOA, one spot behind the Cowboys. Expect Matthew Stafford to unleash the ball quickly to mitigate the Steelers’ pass rush. The importance of Cooper Kupp’s recent return can’t be overstated. –RD

Arizona Cardinals at (-7.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Seahawks.

I’m a sucker for the hook here. The Seahawks defense has been elite against the run but susceptible to the aerial attack. The Cardinals don’t really have a running game, so might as well let it fly, right? On the other side, Seattle should just let Kenneth Walker run wild. So, basically, the Seahawks get what they want but chew up the clock on the ground, while Arizona’s passing game could get a couple of big plays. Sounds like the recipe for a cover. –MC

(-1) Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.

Aaron Jones’ return, coupled with the Week 6 bye after back-to-back losses, gives Green Bay’s offense a good chance to reset. It helps, too, that Denver can’t stop a nosebleed — on the ground or through the air. –RD

Los Angeles Chargers at (-5.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chargers.
Ricky: Chargers.

Four of the last five games between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Chargers have won a pair of those games (including a blowout). On top of that, every LA game this season has been a one-score affair. They just play close games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense still doesn’t look completely right, and that’s without having played a very difficult schedule. The best teams they’ve played — the Lions, Jaguars and Jets — have all been rockfights. –MC

Miami Dolphins at (-2.5) Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Eagles.

This feels very similar to when the Dolphins traveled to Buffalo in Week 4 after hanging 70 points on the Broncos in Week 3. Their offense stalled, relatively speaking, against a major step-up in competition while dealing with disadvantageous road conditions. Philadelphia’s defense ranks third in early-down rush EPA, which could force Miami into some unfavorable third-and-long situations, and the Eagles’ offense has a solid opportunity to finally get right against a Dolphins D ranking 27th in DVOA. –RD

MONDAY, OCT. 23

(-6.5) San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

Contemplated the Vikings here. However, the Minnesota offense just isn’t the same without Justin Jefferson (duh), so that’s a problem. The Vikings defense has been solid, at least at limiting big plays, but the 49ers don’t necessarily need chunk plays to score. They’re fourth in time of possession, pointing to long, sustained drives, and they are lethal in the red zone. San Fran ranks fourth inside the 20, while the Vikings’ defense ranks 26th. –MC