Week 7 NFL Totals: 4 Best Bets for Over/Under

After breaking even on our Week 6 totals picks, we’ll live to fight another day with these four picks that we don’t anticipate losing in Week 7.

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• Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson underwent season-ending surgery this past week, giving Gardner Minshew the starting job for the rest of the season. The Indianapolis Colts got embarrassed last week, but Minshew propelled the offense to 20 points against a rather average Jacksonville Jaguars defense. In Week 7, he faces the Cleveland Browns, who, in my opinion, have the best defense in football. They are elite against the run, elite against the pass, get sacks, and force turnovers like no one else in the league. Through weeks 1-4, the defense let up only a single touchdown and held the San Francisco 49ers to only 17 points last week. Are you telling me Minshew will go over 19.5? There’s no chance; put two, maybe three units on this one. 

Pick: Colts Team Total UNDER 19.5

• Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

I can’t believe I’m taking the over in a game with the New York Giants, but I will do it. Looking at the Washington Commanders, I don’t doubt they can score. If we take out their disastrous performance against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, they’ve averaged nearly 27 points per game, while the Giants defense has allowed almost 28 points per game themselves. Conversely, Saquon Barkley will give this offense a fighting chance if he sees at least 25 touches, regardless of who they trot out at quarterback. You could always pivot to the Commanders’ team total over 19.5, but I’d instead back the game total over 37.5. 

Pick: OVER 37.5

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• Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Much has been made about how bad Desmond Ridder is on the road, but it’s an entirely reasonable worry. In two road games, the Atlanta Falcons combined for just 13 points and now face a strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that’s held opposing teams to under 17.5 points in three of their five games this season. The two games that missed were against the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions, two high-powered offenses, but by no means did the Bucs get embarrassed. The Falcons offense is nowhere near the Eagles and Lions level, so I’ll stick with the anti-road Ridder trend and back the team total under.

Pick: Falcons Team Total UNDER 17.5

• Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

I believe in the Seattle Seahawks offense and think they’ll bounce back after only scoring 13 points against the Cincinnati Bengals up against the Arizona Cardinals defense that has allowed nearly 28 points per game over the last five weeks. The Cardinals have no one to cover DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett and no answer to Kenneth Walker III and the ground attack. Conversely, nothing has been remarkable about the Seattle Seahawks defense, as they’ve allowed the fifth most passing yards per game. Josh Dobbs won’t be able to keep pace with Geno Smith and the loaded Seahawks’ offense, but he could very conceivably score 20 points, putting us in a great position to cash this over.

Pick: OVER 44.5

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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