After a crazy Week 7 of NFL football, we’re looking to get back into the win column in Week 8. We have four spreads and a moneyline parlay that we don’t plan on losing.
Let’s ride.
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Listen, I hate laying 3.5 with a road favorite. It may be my least favorite thing when betting on the NFL, but I have no faith in the Carolina Panthers, and I believe people don’t realize how good the Houston Texans are. Each team is coming off a bye, which adds an interesting layer to this matchup, but things have been so bad in Carolina that I question if a week is enough to work things out. They’ve lost every game by an average of 12 points, and I think CJ Stroud will come in with a chip on his shoulder as the Panthers chose Bryce Young over him atop the draft. Again, I hate laying -3.5, so I may buy this line down to -2.5 and make it a 1.5-unit play, but the Texans will win.
Pick: Texans -3.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers may be the biggest frauds in the NFL in my eyes, and I envision them getting flattened on Sunday. Kenny Pickett isn’t a good quarterback, Matt Canada can’t be an efficient play-caller, Najee Harris might be the slowest running back in the league, and outside of TJ Watt, the defense is below average. The Jacksonville Jaguars are on a roll right now, winning four consecutive games with the offense clicking on all cylinders, averaging 29 points per game. Getting the Jags at less than a field goal is golden in my eyes, as the dominant showing I envision will put the league on notice of how they deserve to be in the upper echelon of AFC contenders.
Pick: Jaguars -2.5
The Tennessee Titans appear to be in sell mode leading up to the trade deadline, already having dealt away long-tenured safety, Kevin Byard to Philadelphia with additional movies potentially on the way. Ryan Tannehill is injured, but it is not like he is good anyway, so seeing a worse player at the quarterback position for Tennessee in either Malik Willis or Will Levis. Who knows if the Atlanta Falcons will sit another key player due to a headache on Sunday, but Atlanta is a tough team, and it will be Arthur Smith’s return to Tennessee, where he formally was the offensive coordinator. Combining a motivated Atlanta squad and a trash Titans team will have me hammering Atlanta -2.5.
Pick: Falcons -2.5
I saw a lot of rhetoric in the NFL community this week of people saying Sam Darnold will be the most talented quarterback Kyle Shanahan has ever had under center in the wake of Brock Purdy’s concussion. Wouldn’t Darnold already be the starter if that was the case, and didn’t he already have years to prove himself but is still a backup? I can see the San Francisco 49ers coming in motivated after losing two straight games on the road, but I believe the Cincinnati Bengals woke up. After two consecutive wins and a bye to get healthy, I think we will see the version of the Bengals we’ve become accustomed to in recent years down the stretch, so you’re telling me I get +4.5 with Joe Burrow against Darnold? I’ll take that all day.
Pick: Bengals +4.5
We’ve been profitable with our moneyline parlays this year, so we’ll combine our four favorite touchdown favorites to get us +165 value.
The Philadelphia Eagles head down the interstate to take on the Washington Commanders and to keep this simple, the Eagles are good, and the Commanders are not. The Eagles already beat the Commanders once, and I don’t envision them taking their foot off the gas pedal after their win over the Miami Dolphins last week.
The Baltimore Ravens have been rolling, fresh off an absolute dismantling of the Detroit Lions. While I think this could be a letdown spot for the Ravens in any other scenario, the Arizona Cardinals have been horrible since beating the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, losing four straight by an average of 15 points.
I picked against the Denver Broncos last week and went with the Green Bay Packers, and I learned that the Packers, not the Broncos, maybe the biggest letdown of the season. Still, the Broncos are horrible, and I’ll live and die by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a moneyline. However, I reserve the right to retract this leg if Taylor Swift is not in the stands.
Heading to Monday Night Football, at home, against the lousy Las Vegas Raiders, I trust Dan Campbell to have his Lions ready to play after the embarrassment they put together last week.
All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
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