NFL Week 10 Picks: Sneaky-Good 49ers-Jaguars Game? End Of Era For Patriots?

Welcome to the Week 10 version of the NESN.com NFL picks where, quite honestly, it’s hard to get excited.

Take, for example, the slate of primetime games we’re looking at this week. The schedule opens Thursday night in Chicago where the Bears host the Carolina Panthers. On Sunday night, the New York Jets head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. Then, the week wraps up Monday night in Buffalo for Bills vs. Broncos.

Given Buffalo’s recent tailspin, it’s possible all six of those teams miss the playoffs. And if you want to throw in the Germany game — Colts vs. Patriots — we’re looking at four standalone games with just one team that has any sort of legitimate Super Bowl hope (and that could be dwindling).

Fun stuff.

So, yeah, it might be the sort of weekend where you can get those leaves raked and bagged. And in the process, give the latest episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, a listen as you work.

Even if you’re not going to tune in to the games this week, there are always bets to be made and picks pools to be won. NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle have already made their against-the-spread picks — highlighting their best bets in “The Spread” — and you can check those out below.

Before diving in, though, here’s how they fared last week:

On to the Week 10 NFL picks.

THURSDAY, NOV. 9

Carolina Panthers at (-4) Chicago Bears, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Panthers.
Ricky: Bears.

Probably not something I should admit as a person whose job is to watch and pay attention to sports, but I probably won’t see a second of this game for obvious reasons. That being said, laying four points with the Bears is a tough pill to swallow. –MC

SUNDAY, NOV. 12

(-1.5) Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots, 9:30 a.m. ET (in Frankfurt)
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Patriots.

The optics can’t get much worse for the Patriots. So, maybe there’s some value here against a middling team with lingering questions of its own? If there’s one thing New England does OK, it’s stop the run, ranking third in rush success rate against. That could severely hamstring Indianapolis’ offense, forcing Gardner Minshew into suboptimal third-down situations. –RD

Cleveland Browns at (-6.5) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns.
Ricky: Browns.

Suppose it’s possible this thing plays out a lot like last week did for the Ravens. Baltimore built an early lead and took away Seattle’s run game. They could do the same here, but the Cleveland defense is the best in the league, which is the huge difference. A full touchdown in a divisional game is too much to pass up, especially when you’re getting the best unit on the field. –MC

(-3) San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

This is the perfect opportunity for the Jaguars to show they’re for real. The analytics suggest they’re legit, but beating a team like the 49ers would be an emphatic statement. Still, until that happens, I’ll back the more proven commodity. The bye week should do the Niners wonders. Expect San Francisco to snap its three-game losing streak in resounding fashion. –RD

Houston Texans at (-6.5) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals.
Ricky: Bengals.

C.J. Stroud looks like the real deal, but as The Athletic’s Mike Sando pointed out, Houston eked out a one-point win over Tampa Bay last week despite a wretched defensive and special teams performance. You can’t count on that every week, especially when you have to go play a much, much better Cincinnati team that is finally rolling. This could be humbling for Houston. –MC

(-2.5) New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints.
Ricky: Saints.

Kudos to Josh Dobbs for leading Minnesota to a victory in relief last week. The whole thing felt wonky, though, and New Orleans’ defense poses a much stiffer challenge. This could be the week Kirk Cousins’ absence is felt. –RD

Green Bay Packers at (-3) Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.

Not sure I’ve correctly picked a Packers game all season, so take that for what it’s worth. This game might be the lowest-scoring affair all weekend, so that makes me lean toward the ‘dog. The Packers defense is starting to come alive a bit, especially against bad offenses, and Pittsburgh checks that box. Green Bay will struggle to move the ball, too, but this feels like a 17-15 game one way or the other. –MC

Tennessee Titans at (-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans.
Ricky: Titans.

There was a lot of evidence to suggest Tampa Bay’s 3-1 start to the season wasn’t sustainable. And now, here we are in Week 10, with the Bucs sitting at 3-5 after a four-game losing streak. This game essentially is a coin flip — hence the razor-thin line — so I’ll lean toward the team showing some recent fight behind its rookie quarterback. –RD

(1.5) Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Falcons.

Maybe Kyler Murray has to knock off the rust here, but it’s hard to lay the points with a road team knowing there’s a pretty clear quarterback mismatch. Murray certainly has the edge over Taylor Heinecke, and he’s got the game-changing ability to get within the number even if it’s not a smooth 60 minutes. –MC

(-3) Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Lions.

This number opened at Detroit -1.5. So, it’s moving in the wrong direction as a Lions backer. Still, Dan Campbell’s bunch is coming off a get-right win followed by a bye, whereas the Chargers just beat up on two bad opponents — perhaps inflating the perception of LA — and now tangle with an NFC contender after traveling across the country on a short week. This could be another breakout performance for Jahmyr Gibbs, with the Chargers surrendering the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs this season. –RD

New York Giants at (-16) Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Cowboys.

Look, the Giants’ season is over. They are starting Tommy Devito, who apparently plays in the NFL, at quarterback this week and Matt Barkley will back him up. That said: 16 whole points? In a divisional game? Brian Daboll can at least keep his team within 16 points of Mike McCarthy, right? –MC

Washington Commanders at (-6.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks.
Ricky: Seahawks.

Geno Smith absolutely needs to be better. Fortunately for the Seahawks, they’re well positioned for a bounce-back effort this week, returning home after a “throw away the tape” loss to the Ravens. Seattle faced Cleveland and Baltimore — the top two teams, respectively, in defensive DVOA — the last two weeks. Now, it’s on to Washington, where the Seahawks will take aim at a defense that ranks 29th and recently traded away its two best edge rushers. The Commanders also rank 27th in run stop win rate, so the Seahawks should be able to feast on the ground, making life easier for Smith. –RD

(-1) New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Raiders.

The Raiders won their Super Bowl last week. They were smoking cigars in the locker room after beating the Giants, a team that currently ranks 32nd in overall DVOA, 32nd on offense and 26th on defense. The Jets are deeply flawed, but they’re flat-out better than the Giants, and their defense presents a massive challenge for a rookie-led offense that has struggled to block all season long. –MC

MONDAY, NOV. 13

Denver Broncos at (-7.5) Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Bills.

Credit to the Broncos for showing fight in the face of adversity. Their defense has improved — it now looks like a mediocre unit as opposed to a historically bad unit — and Denver rattled off back-to-back quality wins before heading into its Week 9 bye. The Bills, meanwhile, are trending in the other direction. Still, this feels like a spot where Buffalo reestablishes itself a bit by pummeling an inferior opponent, something we’ve seen many times in recent years. –RD