NFL Week 11 Picks: Can Texans, Vikings Keep Improbable Runs Alive?

Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and as we get set to make picks for every game this weekend, we’re continuously reminded that no one knows anything at this point of the campaign.

The odds say the Kansas City Chiefs are once again favorites to win the Super Bowl, but they’re one of six teams at FanDuel Sportsbook with title odds of 11-1 or shorter. The NFL loves its parity, but this season feels as wide open as any in recent memory.

That’s in part because it’s so hard to count out so many teams. That’s what makes the Josh Dobbs story so interesting. Theoretically, anyone could have pulled him out of Arizona at the NFL trade deadline. Minnesota, not ready to punt on its season after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury, did just that and has been rewarded with two straight wins. The Vikings have better odds to make the playoffs than miss.

Dobbs’ success should sting in a lot of front offices across the NFL. Think the Browns might be kicking themselves right now? They traded Dobbs to the Cardinals in August, and now Deshaun Watson is done for the season. The Titans had him last season, and while their decision to roll with rookie Will Levis is understandable from a long-term approach, they’d be right in the AFC South mix if they still had him. Or how about a team like the Jets? They’d probably be sitting pretty in the AFC playoff picture right now with any sort of competent QB play, but they instead insist on keeping Zach Wilson at the helm while apparently holding out hope Aaron Rodgers can return.

In addition to making their Week 11 NFL picks, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle discussed on “The Spread” podcast this week the wide-open nature of the NFL this season and how it could make for an unforgettable postseason. The duo also gave their best bets for Week 11, which you can listen to on Spotify below.

Before getting into all of their picks, here’s how they fared last week.

Here are their NFL Week 11 against-the-spread picks.

THURSDAY, NOV. 16

Cincinnati Bengals at (-3.5) Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Ravens.

SUNDAY, NOV. 19

(-10.5) Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys.
Ricky: Panthers.

A classic trap game? The Cowboys are coming off a 32-point win over the Giants. They also host the Commanders next week on Thanksgiving, the first of three straight home games for Dallas, with the other two coming in primetime (Thursday night vs. Seattle in Week 13 and Sunday night vs. Philadelphia in Week 14). This could get ugly, with Dallas steamrolling another bad opponent. Or maybe, just maybe, Carolina sneaks in the backdoor. Let’s get uncomfortable. –RD

Pittsburgh Steelers at (PK) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns.
Ricky: Browns.

Took Cleveland laying four as my three-unit, No. 1 play this week on “The Spread,” a take that hasn’t aged gracefully now that Deshaun Watson is done for the year and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (and his career 26.4 QBR) is starting. As bad as he looked in his only pro performance, still backing Cleveland stems from a belief in the NFL’s No. 1 defense against a Steelers offense that hasn’t outgained anyone this season and somehow is still 6-3. –MC

Chicago Bears at (-9) Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Bears.

Justin Fields is back. No, that doesn’t solve Chicago’s problems. The Bears were bad even before the third-year quarterback suffered a thumb injury. But his return raises Chicago’s ceiling, opens more doors for the Bears to remain competitive and adds enough variance to support fading the Lions before they head into a Turkey Day clash with the Packers next week. –RD

Total passing yards (incl. overtime)

Best Odds Available

Over

Under

CHI at DET

CHI –

Sunday Nov. 19

o203.5 -114

FanDuel

u210.5 -115

DraftKings

(-3) Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Chargers.
Ricky: Chargers.

On paper, it seems wild to lay three points at Lambeau Field with the Superchargers. However, this is obviously a transitional year for Green Bay, and it’s hard to have confidence in that team on either side of the ball. Brandon Staley’s defenses have flummoxed younger quarterbacks who aren’t good. Jordan Love might fit in that box. The bigger issue for Green Bay is the Joe Barry-led defense that struggled at times last week to slow down the Steelers, let alone an offense led by Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. –MC

Arizona Cardinals at (-5) Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Texans.

Kyler Murray flashed his explosiveness last week upon returning to the lineup, leading the Cardinals to a two-point, last-second win over the Falcons. So, naturally, I’m looking to fade Arizona’s offense this week. We all know the rollercoaster that is the Kyler Murray experience. And the stench of the Cardinals losing six straight games by an average of 15.7 points isn’t totally gone from my nostrils. –RD

Tennessee Titans at (-7) Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans.
Ricky: Titans.

The Titans didn’t do Will Levis many favors, huh? After a fantastic debut, he’s in the midst of three straight road games against really good defenses: Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and now Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ pass defense, if it’s not able to get pressure, is suspect. Honestly, it’s not much more than a hunch that Tennessee is able to keep the Jags’ front at bay just enough for Levis to get back on track-ish to keep it within the number. –MC

Las Vegas Raiders at (-13.5) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Dolphins.

This number keeps climbing. And for good reason: The Dolphins beat up on bad teams. While the Raiders secured back-to-back wins after Josh McDaniels’ firing, it’s important to note those victories came at home against the Tommy DeVito-led Giants (32nd in offensive DVOA) and the Zach Wilson-led Jets (30th in offensive DVOA). Now, Las Vegas travels across the country to Miami after playing on Sunday night to face a high-powered Dolphins offense that’s coming off a well-timed bye. –RD

New York Giants at (-9.5) Washington Commanders, 1 p.m.
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Giants.

Tommy DeVito stinks. You might have heard. Don’t let that distract you from the fact that Washington has struggled all season to keep Sam Howell upright. New York sacked him six times a few weeks ago and should be able to pressure him enough here to make this thing the ugliest game you’ll see all year … which should hopefully mean a cover. –MC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-11.5) San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: Bucs.

There were red flags surrounding Tampa Bay’s early season success, indicating it was not sustainable. But the Buccaneers have proven opportunistic at times, while the Niners sometimes veer off track when things don’t go exactly according to plan. An early strike from the Bucs could eventually keep this game tighter than Kyle Shanahan and company would like. –RD

New York Jets at (-7) Buffalo Bills, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Bills.

Maybe Joe Brady is able to solve all of the Bills’ issues. But their new offensive coordinator has his work cut out for him with this Jets defense in his first week since taking over for the fired Ken Dorsey. The Jets have won two of the last three matchups with Buffalo, and the Bills haven’t been able to score more than 20 points in any of those games. New York remains a top-10 defense and should give Josh Allen fits, once again, to keep this close. –MC

(-1) Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams.
Ricky: Seahawks.

Seattle’s defense is a tough nut to crack. So, it’s possible Matthew Stafford returns from his thumb injury and carves up the Seahawks at home. But ultimately, one team is better than the other. And that better team is laying just a single point. Sign me up. –RD

Minnesota Vikings at (-2.5) Denver Broncos, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Vikings.

Kevin O’Connell will get all the credit for this Vikings season and might even win Coach of the Year — but he might not even be the best coach on his staff. That might be Brian Flores, who has taken a defense that ranked 24th by DVOA last season and turned them into the No. 8 defense this season. As he did in Miami, Flores is blitzing like crazy (49% of the time!), and Russell Wilson’s 78.4 passer rating against the blitz ranks 21st of 26 qualified QBs, right between Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. –MC

MONDAY, NOV. 20

Philadelphia Eagles at (-2.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs.
Ricky: Chiefs.

Betting the Chiefs as short favorites is just too tantalizing to pass up. They’ve long thrived in this scenario with Patrick Mahomes under center. And the Eagles keep playing with fire despite piling up wins. –RD