NFL Week 9 Picks: ATS Predictions For Stacked Post-Trade Deadline Slate

A lot can change in a week, especially in the NFL, and as we get set to make Week 9 picks, the landscape looks drastically different.

Not only did the NFL trade deadline come and go this week, but the first head-coaching domino fell when the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels after a season and a half. The lines are pretty well drawn as to which teams are rebuilding and which teams are going for it.

How exactly does that get factored into making picks for the actual games on the field starting in Week 9? That’s what NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle tried to tackle with their weekly against-the-spread picks.

Before reading the NFL Week 9 picks below, would you mind giving a listen to this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast?

Finally, before diving into the picks, here’s how they fared in Week 8.

And now, without further ado, here are their NFL Week 9 against-the-spread picks.

THURSDAY, NOV. 2

Tennessee Titans at (-2.5) Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Steelers.
Ricky: Steelers.

There’s officially a week’s worth of tape for the Steelers to digest on Will Levis, who now has to make his first road start, in Pittsburgh on a short week, against a very talented defense. –MC

SUNDAY, NOV. 5

Miami Dolphins vs. (-2) Kansas City Chiefs, 9:30 a.m. ET (in Frankfurt)
Mike: Chiefs.
Ricky: Chiefs.

Best international NFL game ever? Sure feels that way, seeing as this matchup ultimately could have major AFC seeding implications. Nevertheless, this is the perfect opportunity to back the Chiefs — a short favorite, after a loss, against an opponent who’s coming off a double-digit win but who otherwise showed defensive cracks when facing formidable contenders in recent weeks. –RD

Minnesota Vikings at (-4.5) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Vikings.

It doesn’t feel great rolling with Jaren Hall on the road, but sometimes you gotta get uncomfortable. The Vikings have at least built an offensive line that should keep Hall safe back there and put him in a true game-manager position. There’s no real reason to believe the Falcons offense will have much success against this revamped Vikings defense that is a top-10 unit under Brian Flores. –MC

Seattle Seahawks at (-5.5) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Seahawks.

Noted on “The Spread” this week that I love the over. There’s enough offensive firepower on both teams to easily surpass the 42.5-point threshold (since bet up to 44), so long as each can rectify its red-zone woes. I’m far less confident in picking a side, but the Ravens sometimes slip up when the arrow starts pointing directly north. And the Seahawks are scrappy dogs birds. –RD

Arizona Cardinals at (-8) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Browns.

The Browns seem like way too obvious of a play here. Their defense stinks and the offense is middle of the pack at best. It’s possible the Browns put them in a 60-minute sleeper hold, but I think the Clayton Tune-led offense gets a couple of big plays (similar to how the Colts did two weeks ago) that put Arizona within the number. –MC

Los Angeles Rams at (-3) Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Rams.
Ricky: Packers.

Any concerns about Green Bay’s offense — there are plenty — are trumped by the questions regarding Matthew Stafford’s thumb injury. The mere thought of Brett Rypien quarterbacking the Rams at a soggy Lambeau Field is just too much to bear. –RD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-2.5) Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans.
Ricky: Bucs.

Going off nothing other than analytics, these two defenses are pretty similar, but it’s interesting to note that the Texans’ offense — by EPA, at least — has been identical to the Vikings. Granted, they had Justin Jefferson, but that offense averaged 5.9 yards per play against Tampa Bay earlier this season and lost because it had three turnovers. Houston, you might be surprised to know, has the fewest turnovers in the NFL this season. So, Texans it is. –MC

Washington Commanders at (-3) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

The least-anticipated Patriots game of the last two decades? Might be, right? Anyway, bless your heart if this matchup gets your juices flowing. Kinda just blindly taking the Pats here, completely acknowledging it could look stupid if they get caught looking ahead to next week’s Germany game. –RD

Chicago Bears at (-8.5) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Bears.

Ricky largely opened my eyes to this one on “The Spread” this week. The Bears are quite bad, yes, but neither of us can trust the Saints, and neither should you. Put another way, the Chargers were 8.5-point favorites against the Bears, and in my opinion, the Chargers are more than a point better than the Saints. This number is too high for the Saints to lay. –MC

(-2.5) Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Panthers.
Ricky: Colts.

Quick, name the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game this season. Shockingly, it’s the Colts. Of course, Indianapolis’ defense is no great shakes, but Carolina is dead-last in rush EPA against, which bodes well for the Colts’ running back tandem of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. –RD

New York Giants at (-1.5) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Giants.

It would be easy to say the Raiders are going to get the fired-coach bump, and Davante Adams will go off for 200 yards and two scores. Maybe that will happen. But the Raiders also struggle mightily to block, and none of this week’s changes will improve that. And while the G-Men shipped out Leonard Williams, Kayvon Thibodeaux still is there, and he’ll probably introduce himself to Aidan O’Connell early and often. –MC

Dallas Cowboys at (-3) Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys.
Ricky: Cowboys.

Jalen Hurts was able to overcome his apparent knee issue to take down the Commanders last week. But the Cowboys’ defense — fourth in dropback EPA, with a devastating pass rush — is a whole different beast. The Eagles’ offense could sputter this week, unless Hurts and the rushing attack is 100%. –RD

Buffalo Bills at (-2) Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Bengals.
Ricky: Bengals.

It has been an uneven first half for the Bengals. They have come alive over this three-game winning streak, with a healthy Joe Burrow operating the offense at a top-10 level. The Bills are a little banged up, and maybe there’s a bit of extra motivation for the Bengals here to prove the rest of the league they still belong atop the AFC, especially with how last year’s matchup played out going into the playoffs. –MC

MONDAY, NOV. 6

(-3.5) Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Jets.

The Jets have made Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts all look mortal this season. Can Justin Herbert buck the trend? Going from torching the Bears’ defense last week to traveling cross-country to face the Jets this week is a tall task. The J-E-T-S find a way. –RD