If Ja’Marr Chase didn’t put up a dud last night, we’re sitting here fresh off a same-game parlay hit, but he did, so we’re moving onto the Week 9 finale on Monday Night Football between the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets, and as usual, we worked up a banger.
This same game parlay is valued at +1400, so be on the lookout for profit boosts to take this to +2100.
Let’s ride.
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Leg 1: Chargers MLEvery game is a must-win for the Chargers now. Sitting at 3-4, another loss all but officially takes them out of the hunt in a closely compact AFC Wild Card hunt. They’re 3.5-point favorites on the road tonight, so I don’t want anything to do with the spread, so I’ll take the Chargers on the moneyline. The Jets are on a three-game winning streak, but those came against the Denver Broncos, New York Giants, and the worst version of the Philadelphia Eagles we’ve seen across the past two seasons. The Chargers showed a sense of urgency last week, knowing that a single loss makes their postseason road much more difficult. As a result, I expect Justin Herbert to outplay Zach Wilson en route to a victory.
After hammering these two plays in the Chargers’ last primetime game, we have no reason not to return to the Austin Ekeler 25-yard double whammy. On the ground, he’s exceeded 25+ rushing yards in all four games this season, averaging roughly 15 carries per game, and the Jets defense has allowed the second most rushing yards per game in the league. Through the air, Ekeler has eclipsed this number in three of four games this season and is fresh off a seven-reception, 94-yard outing last week, while the Jets’ defense has allowed an average of 46 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
We won’t officially tout it, but for extra value, add Ekeler anytime touchdown to this parlay to take it from +1400 to +2100.
I understand that the Jets’ defense is excellent against the pass, but Herbert is paid to perform against great competition, and his No. 1 target, Keenan Allen, has been a machine this season. He’s eclipsed 50 yards in six of seven games this season, averaging roughly 10.5 targets per game. With Mike Williams out for the season and Josh Palmer now sidelined for the foreseeable future, Allen is Herbert’s most reliable option by a wide margin, so we expect a ton of volume heading in his direction tonight. If Allen doesn’t have at least 50 yards, the Chargers will not win this game.
All we need is 50 yards, but if you’re eyeing up extra value, I like this at 70+ yards as well, taking this parlay to +2800 if you also are throwing in Ekeler to find the endzone.
Again, I understand how great the Jets’ secondary is, but Quentin Johnston will have a massive role tonight with Palmer sidelined. Johnston didn’t do much through the first seven weeks of the season, but after Palmer got injured, Johnston went on to have a five-reception outing, so we’re confident in him getting three tonight.
Leg 6: Garrett Wilson 5+ ReceptionsAs bad as Wilson may be, he’ll have some opportunities tonight, as the Chargers’ defense has allowed the most passing yards per game this season. Garrett Wilson is his best weapon, so we’re eyeing him to have at least five receptions tonight, which he has done in five of seven games this season. Across the last four weeks, he’s seen an uptick in volume as he’s averaged 11.5 targets per game. If the Jets want to keep this one competitive, Wilson must be a defining factor in this game.
For an isolated bet, we’re all over him having over 5.5 receptions at plus-money, which he’s hit in three of the last four weeks.
To close this one out, we’ll turn to Allen Lazard to have 25 yards against this putrid pass defense. He’s had at least 25 yards in five of seven games this season, with one of those misses being a 23-yard performance, so we’ll keep this leg simple and ride with the trend with the poor opponent giving him additional upside.
All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
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