B1G Bets: Big Ten Championship Game Preview & Pick Michigan-Iowa

With the college football regular season complete (except for Army-Navy), we move on to Championship Weekend, with the Michigan Wolverines taking on the Iowa Hawkeyes in a rematch of the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game.

The Wolverines earned a pair of top-ten wins over Penn State and Ohio State without their head coach, Jim Harbaugh, as the boys from Ann Arbor arrived in Indianapolis with an unblemished 12-0 record for the second year in a row. The Maize and Blue are a win on Saturday from advancing to their third straight College Football Playoff.

While Michigan lived in the top three all season, the Hawkeyes have surprised many by overcoming one of the worst offenses in college football to win the Big Ten West and ten regular season games. 

More B1G Preview: Michigan Keys | Iowa Keys | Ohio State’s CFP Path |

Record: 48-27-1 overall (+23.5 units) | ATS: 27-14-1 | Team Totals: 16-12 | Game Totals: 5-1

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Last Week: 1-0; Season: 6-1 (+7.5 Units)

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Last Week: 2-0; Season: 23-7 (+16 Units)

Money Line: Michigan -4000 | Iowa +1400 | Total: 34.5

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET; TV: FOX | Location: Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN

Michigan: CFP: 2 | SP+: 1 | PFF: 2

Iowa: CFP: 16 | SP+: 31 | PFF: 21

Championship Week 5 Keys to Victory: Georgia | Alabama | Oregon | Washington| Texas | Oklahoma State | SMU | Tulane 

If you’ve been following B1G Bets this season, you know, most weeks, we’ve been on either the Iowa Hawkeyes as a side, Phil Parker’s defense (opposing team total), or both. This is not most weeks.

The Hawkeyes have held 11 opponents to 16 points or less, including their past eight games. But they allowed 31 points to the best offense they’ve faced this season in Penn State, who finished tenth in time of possession. Michigan’s offense is better, and no stranger to ball control (14th in time of possession).

As great as Iowa’s defense is, who is the best QB they’ve faced? Penn State’s Drew Allar? Allar is ranked 39th (0.229) in EPA/ATT. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is ranked third (0.576) in EPA/ATT, second in completion percentage (74.3%), fifth in yards per attempt (9.7), and seventh in total EPA among QBs.

While the Wolverines don’t always unleash him, he’s an elite quarterback. He’s the B1G QB of the year, Blake Corum was named the B1G RB of the year, while three of their offensive linemen and tight end Colston Loveland were first-team All-B1G selections by the coaches.

This is a top-ten, if not top-five, offense in college football.

It’s not just playing better offenses than the rest of the B1G West offers, although that’s part of it, too. But when Iowa plays a team with a top-notch defense (Michigan, PSU, OSU), it doesn’t matter how well their defense plays—whether it’s because of turnovers (six turnovers vs. OSU in 2022) or being on the field too long (97 snaps vs. PSU in 2023)—their defense will be asked to do too much.

Heisman Trophy Handicap: Bo Nix | Jayden Daniels | Michael Penix Jr.

The biggest reason for backing the Wolverines to win this one by more than three touchdowns is how their defense stacks up against Iowa’s offense.

Michigan is first nationally in scoring defense (10.3 PPG), second in SP+, sixth in defensive success rate, and seventh in defensive EPA. Led by first-team selections DT Mason Graham (coaches), NB Mike Sainristil (media), and CB Will Johnson (both), eight Wolverine defenders made All-B1G, while another six were honorable mentions. That’s 14 players from their defense. It is a testament to their quality depth, particularly in the front six/seven.

The Hawkeyes are 124th in scoring, 124th in SP+, 129th in offensive EPA, 130th in offensive success rate, and 131st in points per drive. Without a turnover (Michigan’s seven turnovers are the fourth fewest) or special teams play, I’m not sure how Iowa scores.

In addition to their defense, Iowa’s special teams and ability to win the field position battle is always big in their games. Even that is negated. While the Hawkeyes are 12th in net field position and ranked 35th on special teams by SP+, the Wolverines are ranked first in net field position and fifth on special teams by SP+.

Even Tory Taylor can’t save them this week, which is a scary place for the Hawkeyes to be.

Last Week: 4-0; Season: 19-19-1 (Even)

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