Buying Bills? Buffalo Winning AFC East Not Crazy As Once Seemed

The Buffalo Bills looked like they might not even make the NFL playoffs just a few short weeks ago. Now there’s a reason to believe the Bills will not only reach the postseason but perhaps win the AFC East.

The New York Times playoff model previously gave the Miami Dolphins a 91% chance to win the division and the Bills a 9% chance, per Bills reporter Ajay Cybulski. Following Buffalo’s Week 15 curb stomping of the Dallas Cowboys, the model shows a 60-40 split favoring Miami.

Buffalo’s win marked a second consecutive victory and third in four games, including a Week 14 verdict against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The 8-6 Bills, who currently are the ninth seed in the AFC playoffs, are two games back of the 10-4 Miami Dolphins in the division. Buffalo, however, has a much more favorable schedule these next two weeks.

The Bills will travel to the Justin Herbert-less Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16 before they host the New England Patriots in Week 17. It feels like those are two very manageable wins for Josh Allen and company.

On the other hand, the Dolphins, who will not have Tyreek Hill return until he’s 100% healthy, have a more challenging road. Despite the fact the Bills just blasted the Cowboys, Dallas in Week 16 is no sure thing for Miami. And the Dolphins then will travel to the Baltimore Ravens, currently the top seed in the conference, on New York’s Eve.

If the ‘Fins lose either of those two games and the Bills win both of theirs, Miami will host Buffalo in Week 18 for a winner-take-all AFC East showdown. If the ‘Fins lose to either the Cowboys or Ravens and lose to the Bills in Week 18, Buffalo will win the division, per the ESPN playoff machine.

The drastic change of events has FanDuel Sportsbook oddsmakers listing the Bills 2-1 to win the division. The Dolphins are -230 to claim the AFC East.