A top-15 bantamweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 233 as No. 7 ranked Song Yadong and No. 14 Chris Gutierrez.
- Date: Saturday, December 9, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Moody Center – Austin, Texas | TV: ESPN+
Moroccan Nasrat Haqparast faces Aussie Jamie Mullarkey. Haqparast is riding a two-fight win streak but is 2-2 over his last four bouts. Mullarkey is fresh off a win over John Makdessi but lost via TKO in his previous fight.
Mullarkey is two inches taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Haqparast has slightly more one-punch power, averaging 0.53 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Mullarkey’s 0.31. Haqparast lands 1.27 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 0.85 more. Mullarkey is the more active wrestler, averaging 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes.
At -200, Haqparast is favored to win outright. Mullarkey has a suspect chin, and Haqparast lands at volume. We’ll roll the dice on a Haqparast KO/TKO at +390.
Lionheart and The War HorseNo. 8 light heavyweight Anthony “Lionheart” Smith takes on No. 11 Khalil “The War Horse” Rountree Jr. Smith is coming off a split decision win over Ryan Spann but dropped his previous two fights to Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. Rountree has won four straight, three by knockout.
Smith is three inches taller, but Rountree will have a half-inch reach advantage. Lionheart has been around the block and has respectable offensive tools. He’s solid in the clinch and is a threat on the ground. However, Rountree averages 1.69 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Smith’s 0.45. He also lands more significant strikes and absorbs fewer. The War Horse will have a slight grappling advantage, but it shouldn’t be a determining factor.
At -210, Rountree is favored to win outright and -110 to win by KO/TKO. We’ll take Rountree to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 at +115 to get plus-odd.
UFC Bantamweight Main EventSong Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez
- Odds to Win: Yadong -400 | Gutierrez +300
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -105 | Submission +950 | Decision +100
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +108 | No -136
Song “The Kung Fu Kid” Yadong enters the cage opposite Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez. Yadong’s last fight was a win over Ricky Simon after previously losing to Cory Sandhagen. However, Yadong has won four of his previous five bouts, three by KO/TKO. Gutierrez is also coming off a win, beating Alateng Heili in October. He is 8-1-1 over his last ten contests.
Gutierrez is an inch taller, but both fights have a 67-inch reach. Yadong averages 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes to El Guapo’s 0.56. Gutierrez lands on average 0.43 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.04 fewer. Yadong is the more active grappler, but the statistical advantage is negligible.
Gutierrez has far too much value at +300, regardless of who will win this fight.
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez Betting Card- Haqparast by KO/TKO (+390)
- Rountree by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 (+115)
- Gutierrez to win (+300)
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