NFL Divisional Round Picks: New Blood, Old Guard Make Up Football’s Best Weekend

It’s a little bit of old and a little bit of new this weekend for the NFL’s divisional round of the playoffs.

Typically viewed as the best week of the entire NFL season, the divisional round is where we really separate the men from the boys. There’s an undeniable evolution going on before our eyes, too, one that’s represented by this weekend’s matchups.

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are gone. They have been replaced by the likes of C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love. Bill Belichick is gone, at least for now, and Dan Campbell might be the biggest coaching personality left in the field.

Yet, for all that change, there’s still a foundation of familiarity. John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson are back in the championship hunt. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers believe this is the year it all gets put together. And the weekend concludes with what’s becoming an annual rite of passage with the Bills and Chiefs squaring off with the season on the line, this time with a slight twist.

There’s a lot to digest, and NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle not only tackle it all in their weekly picks column, but they also kicked around some of the week’s bigger talking points on this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.

Make sure you carve out some time for this week’s, episode which you can hear below.

And before getting into their official NFL Divisional Round picks, here’s how the guys fared last week.

Here are their NFL Divisional Round picks for all four games.

SATURDAY, JAN. 20

Houston Texans at (-9.5) Baltimore Ravens, 4:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Texans.

The forecast has been tough to pin down, but the consensus is it will be cold and we’ll see wind gusts up over 20 mph. Seemingly, that should emphasize the running game, where Baltimore should be far more comfortable than Houston. Only one playoff team passed at a higher rate than the Texans, who ranked 29th in yards per carry. C.J. Stroud might not have the arm strength to cut through that wind. It’s only a one-game sample size, but the worst game of his collegiate career at Ohio State came in blustery conditions at Northwestern last season. Houston does have a stout run defense, but this pick comes down to a potentially handicapped Texans offense against an overall elite Ravens defense. –MC

Green Bay Packers at (-9.5) San Francisco 49ers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

Maybe Joe Barry has completely fixed all the issues with the Packers defense, but we’re only a month removed from legitimate calls for his job after getting torched by Tommy DeVito, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young. The recent turnaround coinciding with the offense operating at the highest level is no coincidence. Barry’s defense is built to play from ahead. The Niners have a top-five defense that if it plays up to its potential, are going to take away the Packers’ ability to open an early lead as they did in Dallas. If that’s the case, it allows Kyle Shanahan the opportunity to go deep into his playbook and expose the Packers’ defensive weaknesses, primarily on the ground. As long as Christian McCaffrey is healthy, San Francisco should move the ball with relative ease. It just feels like a game where the Packers will keep pace for a bit before the Niners pull away and cover the relatively large number. –MC

SUNDAY, JAN. 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-6.5) Detroit Lions, 3 p.m.
Mike: Bucs.
Ricky: Lions.

At the risk of overreacting to Tampa Bay walloping a downright flawed Eagles team last week, this number just feels too high. The Bucs don’t do anything terribly well, and they are inconsistent. A blowout is very much on the table if they don’t start fast. But I just can’t help but think of the times this season when offenses like Seattle or Green Bay or Baltimore have made the Detroit defense look bad. Tampa Bay at least has the personnel and quarterback to do that in a one-game sample size. The Bucs have the NFL’s No. 12 offense by EPA with capable weapons, especially at wideout. The defense has allowed more than 23 points just once since late November. It’s definitely the least confident play of the weekend, but a slugfest decided by a field goal is at least on the table. –MC

Kansas City Chiefs at (-2.5) Buffalo Bills, 6:30 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Chiefs.

There’s going to be a lot made about this being Patrick Mahomes’ first career road playoff game. And that is quite the statement. For me, at least, this has more to do with the fact that Kansas City just isn’t as good as past years. We know the Bills can beat the Chiefs, too. They went into KC in Week 14 and won that game, sparking their run to the playoffs. The Chiefs were largely full strength in that one, and if anything, Buffalo has gotten better since. Especially if Gabe Davis can find a way to play here, I think the Bills offense has a better chance of sustained offensive success over 60 minutes than the Chiefs, even despite Buffalo’s injuries on defense. –MC